Friedman’s Three Scenarios (Updated)

In today’s New York Times column Thomas Friedman outlines three scenarios he envisions for how the Russia-Ukraine war might end: the “full-blown disaster”, the “dirty compromise”, and “salvation”.

The “full-blown disaster” is that Putin succeeds in destroying Ukraine as a “free independent state” and installs a government more to his liking in the country. Not only is it “well underway” as Mr. Friedman puts it, it is by far the most likely scenario.

The “dirt compromise” is that Ukrainian resistance is sufficiently stiff to delay Russia sufficiently for the various economic sanctions to bite sufficiently that both sides are willing to compromise:

Its rough contours would be that in return for a cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian troops, Ukraine’s eastern enclaves now under de facto Russian control would be formally ceded to Russia, while Ukraine would explicitly vow never to join NATO. At the same time, the U.S. and its allies would agree to lift all recently imposed economic sanctions on Russia.

Here’s Mr. Friedman’s dream scenario:

Finally, the least likely scenario but the one that could have the best outcome is that the Russian people demonstrate as much bravery and commitment to their own freedom as the Ukrainian people have shown to theirs, and deliver salvation by ousting Putin from office.

I agree with Mr. Friedman that would be the best case scenario if not for some pesky issues. It may indiscreet of me to mention this but are the western Ukrainians actually the freedom-loving liberal democrats they are being portrayed as in our media? I think the evidence suggests they are ethnic Ukrainian nationalists. If not why was one of the first actions of the new Ukrainian government following the “Revolution of Dignity” to end the regional of not just Russian but also the Hungarian and Romanian languages? Protecting the rights of minorities would seem to me to be a key indicator of a liberal democratic order.

It seems to me that there are several more scenarios that should be considered for how this tragic invasion might unfold. The first is that having taken Ukraine’s major cities, President Putin might settle for a demilitarized and non-NATO joining ethnic Ukrainian western Ukraine and an ethnic Russian eastern Ukraine which might or might not federate with Russia. I don’t think it’s likely but it should be considered possible.

The second is that Ukrainian resistance continues over a protracted period and, despite the economic sanctions imposed by the West, Putin remains adamant and continues the conflict. Sadly, I think this may be the most likely scenario.

Third is that Putin becomes desperate enough to use nuclear weapons in his assaults on Ukrainian cities. Then what?

Update

Today seems to be the day for scenarios. At the blog of the Atlantic Council Barry Pavel, Peter Engelke, and Jeffrey Cimino count up four scenarios for how they see the war in Ukraine unfolding. They are:

1. Ukraine’s military and civilian resistance overcome the odds and grind Moscow’s advance to a halt, preventing Russian President Vladimir Putin from toppling Kyiv’s democratic government and establishing a puppet regime.
2. Russia manages to topple Ukraine’s government and install a puppet regime but neither Ukraine’s armed forces nor its population are ready to surrender.
3. Russian forces manage to take control of the country through the use of increasingly heavy-handed weapons and tactics. Resistance against a Putin-installed puppet government is simmering and omnipresent, but it is put down with brutal force and does not prove strong enough to pose a significant challenge to the substantial Russian forces that remain in Ukraine.
4. A NATO-Russia war

Three seems the most likely, especially if the NATO countries are unwilling to do without Russian oil.