In his latest New York Times column Tom Friedman combines realism and fantasy about Russia’s war in Ukraine. Here’s the realism:
I believe the Ukraine war is about to enter a new phase, based on this fact: Many Russian soldiers and generals may be dead, but Ukraine’s steadfast NATO allies are tired. This war has already contributed to a huge spike in natural gas, gasoline and food prices in Europe — and if it drags into the winter, many families in the European Union may have to choose between heating and eating.
As a result, I think the war’s new phase is what I call Vladimir Putin’s “winter strategy†versus NATO’s “summer strategy.â€
It is obvious that Putin is ready to keep plowing forward in Ukraine, in the hopes that the soaring inflation in energy and food prices in Europe will eventually fracture the NATO alliance. His bet seems to be: If average temperatures in Europe are colder than normal, and if average global oil and gas supplies are tighter than normal, and if average prices are higher than normal, and if electricity blackouts from energy shortages become widespread, there’s a good chance that European NATO members will start pressuring Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to cut a deal with Russia — any deal — to stop the fighting.
So Putin must surely be telling his own exhausted troops and generals: “Just get me to Christmas. Winter is our friend.â€
and here’s the fantasy:
There is only one thing that I am certain of: This war in Ukraine will not end — really end — as long as Putin is in power in Moscow. That is not a call to overthrow him. That’s for Russians to decide. It’s simply an observation that this has always been Putin’s war. He personally conceived it, planned it, directed it and justified it. It is impossible for him to imagine Russia as a great power without Ukraine. So, while it may be possible to force Putin into a cease-fire, I doubt it will be more than temporary.
In short: This Ukraine war is so far from over that I can’t even see over.
What makes it fantastical is that he imagines that Putin is isolated in Russia and that all that is necessary to bring peace between Russia and Ukraine is for someone, anyone to replace Putin as Russia’s leader. That’s a fantasy. Even with the high casualties in men and equipment in Ukraine, Putin’s approval rating is around 75%. That’s real. The things he says and does are just carrying out what many Russians believe.
There are only two ways that wars end. One or both parties can be destroyed, exhausted. Or there can be a negotiated settlement. The likelihood that any negotiated settlement will result in Ukraine becoming a member of NATO is extremely remote. And Russia has not been destroyed and is not nearing exhaustion. Indeed, since European countries have continued to import Russian oil and gas, the prices of which have risen sharply, it’s arguable that Russia has actually benefited since February. Our European NATO allies have announced that they will stop importing oil and gas from Russia. We’ll see.
IMO we should start thinking about the relationship between Russia and Ukraine more like that between the United States and Mexico. We’re neighbors but we’re not friends. If you think that the two countries are friends you have not been paying attention. Our leaders may smile but there are certain things that Mexico’s political leaders understand that they can’t do. For example, they can’t install Chinese weapons on the U. S.-Mexico border.
Aside from the reality of soaring food and fuel prices in the EU and US, Friedman’s entire article is fantasy. He does not have a clue about what is actually happening in Ukraine, and he probably never paid any attention to Russia’s publicly stated goals.
He is also unaware of internal Russian politics, but then no one in our media or Ruling Class or military has the least clue. Putin and the war enjoy support at the 70 to 80% level. The Russian people correctly see this war as a war for their national survival, the Second Great Patriotic War. The US goal is to cut Russia up into a number of small helpless countries and to seize their resources. The US State Dept. has a whole division discussing how to do this, and they recently held an international conference discussing the project.
Putin is the moderate in the Russian government. Even Medvedev, once a vocal Atlanticist, now is a Russian nationalist first and last. Any replacement for Putin would almost certainly elevate the war to a much higher level, perhaps a general European and North American war.
Russia’s troops are nowhere near being exhausted. Russia has only committed about 15% of its army to the SMO. And it regularly rotates units out of the line for refit and rest. It’s casualties are far less than Ukraine’s 1,000 per day, dead and wounded. That is mostly because the Russian’s spend a lot of time shelling Ukrainian positions before assaulting them. The upshot is that Russia can sustain the current level of fighting indefinitely, and it has escalation dominance should the West get frisky.
The EU (and soon the US) essentially committed economic suicide when it adopted an all-renewables goal. Their support for US embargoes against Russia have seriously backfired, and now Europeans are looking at freezing and starving in the dark. (Our future, too.) The war has merely brought their and our doom closer.
In the meantime, it is the US/EU/NATO that is isolated from the world. No Latin American, African, Middle Eastern country and only a couple of Asian countries support the US sanctions. Turkey and Hungary, NATO allies do not. BRICS is now BRICSIA, with the recent additions of Iran and Argentina. Several other Latin American countries are observers. Iran is now a full member of SCO.
Ukraine’s position is hopeless. The war will end on Russian terms when Russia decides it has achieved enough of its war goals. Two of those goals, denazification and demilitarization, imply occupation of all of Ukraine, and imposition of a puppet government (to replace our puppet government).
What Friedman and the rest of our Ruling Caste do not grasp is that Western domination of the international order is passing away. Russia, China, India and many other non-Western countries are working hard for a multipolar world under UN rules, and they are slowly succeeding. A major historic change is underway.