I also wanted to bring George Friedman’s observations on what happens if Ukraine falls to your attention. He notes:
If the Ukrainians can no longer resist effectively, and if the flanks represented by Belarus and Moldova are opening a path to Poland and Romania, what will the United States do? Europe will follow Washington’s lead, for better or worse. The worst-case scenario, of course, would be the war that was avoided during the Cold War. That war never happened because Russia did not have the power to engage and defeat NATO and its U.S. benefactors. The Russians were not prepared to attack given the risk of failure and the riskier, albeit unlikely, possibility of a nuclear exchange.
Still, the U.S. must consider the risks of intervention. If Russia occupies Ukraine, it would effectively border Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.
The big question is whether Russia would then invade any of those countries. I don’t think so but I’ve been wrong before. It’s certainly a risk.
Aiding the Ukrainians in recovering all of there erstwhile territory including Crimea is also a risk. Weighing the relative risks is something I’m glad I don’t have to do. I wish no one had to do it.
DSJ. Will the neocons never give up their war mongering? What deep psychopathology drives people like Friedman. Whatever it might be, it is the same pathology that drove Hilter, Tojo, Mussolini… We are ruled by people who are literally insane. Let’s hope Hitler/Putin doesn’t launch thousands of party balloons at us.
The Russian conquest of Ukraine would/will have NO implications for NATO/EU/US security. None. Russia has no plans to invade the West.
However, the continued interventions by the US and its NATO vassals will lead inexorably to WW III, and a possible nuclear war. WW III might already have started. Future historians (if any survive) will date its beginning to February 18, 2014, when the US set off the coup that removed the legitimate government of Ukraine, and that installed the current junta.
Until quite recently, the purpose of Russia’s SMO was to force Kiev to implement the Minsk agreements, which would have kept the Donbas under Ukrainian jurisdiction. That policy was abandoned when the US (via Boris Johnson) forced Zelensky to renege on the cease fire negotiated in Istanbul. After that, Russia adopted the new policy of annexing the Donbas. How many other oblasts they might annex remains to be seen.
Of course, war mongers are never satisfied, and our elites are also pushing war with China and Iran. At least one of the three must pop off, and then the other two will go kinetic, too.
I remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. Then both the USSR and the US had rational leaders who sought peace and pursued negotiations. The current US regime only makes demands. It refuses to negotiate anything, and, as Nord Stream shows, it will use violence against its own “allies” to keep them in line.
Mr Friedman isn’t being imaginative enough. What if the conflict really expands — as in not just Russia and NATO in direct conflict, but China, Iran, North Korea all actively supplying Russia with arms, or even simmering confrontations in the Middle East, South China Sea, Taiwan strait, and Korean armistice line all turning hot.
Its theoretical currently — but the tone of the readout and media coverage of Secretary Blinken and Wang Yi’s meeting was ominous. I don’t recall Americans alleging the Chinese are considering sending lethal aid before. I believe the balance of risks and incentives still point toward the Chinese remaining officially neutral…. but the temptation to push the US into a European war must be getting stronger with the worsening bilateral relationship.
This is beyond stupid. For the sake of the argument, I will allow the possibility of Russia taking and holding the Baltics, but taking and holding Poland and Hungary will never happen, especially without the Ukrainian Cassocks.
(I am less familiar with Slovakia and Romania. @Icepick would know a lot more.)
The Hungarians are Huns, and I believe the Poles are a mix of Germanic and Viking people. In the aftermath of WW2, their armies were decimated, and the Soviet Union army occupied their territory. The KGB and other secret police were necessary to control them.
The Russians would need to take and control the Ukraine. They would need to conscript the Ukrainian Cossacks and Tatars, and most importantly, those groups would need to perform to their historical standards.
After somehow achieving those goals, the Russians would need to take Poland and Hungary. This would require the ability to secure their supply lines, and they would need to control the population. (Good luck with all that.)
I am surprised Mr. Friedman left out Germany, Denmark, Scandinavia, and the UK.
This is a family dispute, and it will never be resolved. Under a strong Russian ruler (historically, the Czar), the Ukrainians are brought to heel, and under a weak one, they rebel. Then, a strong Russian leader takes charge, and the cycle repeats.
The Russians are not ‘ten-foot giants/monsters’. They are a backward and paranoid people. Historically, they have been ostracized by Europe leading to a major inferiority complex.
Rational to the crazy mass shooter is not the same as a sane person, and when he/she has nuclear weapons instead of assault weapons, it is best to be a little more cautious.