At The Interpreter (hat tip: RealClearDefense) Korea analyst Robert E. Kelly presents what what I think is a solid characterization of why South Korea’s reaction to North Korean nuclear weapons development is so blasé. Basically, it boils down to that for the South Koreans North Korean bad actions aren’t news and that Americans are so unaccustomed to living with insecurity that they’re overreacting.
It was this passage, however, that caught my attention:
But no Korea analyst of any stature has argued for war.
My advice: pay no attention to the regional analysts. In 1937 I am confident that no American Germany analyst of any stature argued for war and that in 1997 no Middle East analyst of any stature argued for war with Iraq. We went to war nonetheless, invading both countries.
An American Korea analyst may know everything there is to know about Korea but understand the United States very poorly. Indeed, academic specialization being what it is, I would expect it.
OT : I want to say I love Mr Kelly’s video on the BBC.
Another example: No regional analyst thought Iraq would invade Kuwait in 1990. Not even the Kuwaiti’s believed it. US military intelligence monitored the build-up of forces and provided war warning, but they weren’t believed.
Just in case it isn’t clear from my post, my view is that our media are reacting hysterically to what the North Koreans are doing. That reaction on their part isn’t limited to what the North Koreans are doing. They’re reacting hysterically to practically everything these days.
I’ve admittedly limited my American media viewing, but it seems to me the media are freaking about Trump’s potential reaction to North Korea more than to North Korea itself. I’ve seen a number of nuclear and DPRK experts that I respect categorically state they are more worried about Trump’s reaction than North Korea.
Andy- Isn’t it Trump’s reactions that should concern us more? As the South Koreans know, this isn’t new behavior for NoKorea. That said I will have to agree withDave that the press overreacts to almost everything. Sells more ads I guess.
Steve
Steve,
My primary concern is a misunderstanding that leads to escalation or precipitates war. I can’t estimate the actual danger of that, but my sense is that these are two leaders who have a high risk tolerance and that does concern me.
Also, I’d be a lot more worried about Trump vis-a-vis military action were it not for Sec. Mattis.
The press overreaction is creating the political conditions here that would used to justify an immoral and illegal preventive strike by the United States against North Korea. If they were covering the story differently, that might not be the case.