At Bloomberg Leonid Bershidsky lends some support to the point I made a little while ago—that automobile ownership is not becoming obsolete:
Knittel and Murphy found, using U.S. government data, that millennials own 0.4 percent fewer vehicles per household than baby boomers did. But controlling for socio-demographic variables including income and the family life cycle explains away this entire difference. Doing the same for vehicle miles travel data reveals that millennials are more active travelers than older Americans.
Millennials, Knittel and Murphy wrote, “operate under many of the same constraints as prior generations, and they still have strong preferences for personal vehicles.†Most of the U.S. isn’t really built for any transportation solution other than private cars. In Europe, where public transportation and car-sharing networks are better developed, various studies show that millennials are less likely to own cars than previous generations, but robust studies such as Knittel and Murphy’s are lacking, so it’s unclear whether, as in the U.S., most of the difference is explained by socioeconomic factors rather than preferences.
I’ve heard many young people say they choose not to own cars because of environmental awareness or the convenience of sharing options. But do they actually mean what they say — or is it simply that they can’t afford to buy a car and would rather frame that reality as a choice?
He goes on to observe that particularly in the developing world vehicle ownership is driven by a desire for prestige, something that is likely to increase rather than decrease as those countries become more prosperous.
Any decline we’re seeing in automobile ownership is largely a run-on factor of our overemphasis on higher education. That has additional run-on effects as well, everything from delay of marriage, childrearing, and home ownership—factors in the acquisition of wealth—to an adolescence prolonged into their 30s and a lack of adult skills, including the ability to be a self-starter or shoulder responsibilities.
When the Constitution was signed the voting age was set at 21. At that time by age 21 most men had borne adult responsibilities for 5 years and, consequently, had more adult judgment. Nowadays that may be delayed until as late as 40.
But I digress. Don’t expect owning a car to become “quaint”. That isn’t going to happen for the foreseeable future.
As antiplanner repeatedly points out, on a passenger-mile basis, European and Japanese use cars for transit almost as much as we do. The high speed trains of Europe are pretty much the worst of all possible ways to move people. Moreover, using trains to move people means that most freight in Europe must go by truck. Overall, the European system is highly inefficient, and the American one is very superior.
PS. The so-called high-speed trains proposed for California and the Midwest would generally operate at less than 80 mph, and it is estimated the California one might average somewhere in the 60’s. This is partly due to using track designed for freight, and partly to having to schedule around freight. True high speed requires and entirely separate track system.
PPS. The French TGV (whatever) operates well below its design speed because of costs.
PPPS. Buses carry more people between cities than Amtrack in the Northeast.
I also think that liability will prevent truly autonomous vehicles from reducing the number of vehicles on the road as some are predicting they will. A few suits have already been filed and I suspect their outcomes will be eye-openers for those who are touting autonomous vehicles.
A lot of young people still live in their parents’ homes, so there are cars they can borrow.
Ride-sharing as an alternative is very limited. I’ve used the services and they quickly become prohibitively expensive for regular commuting.
I agree the car isn’t going away anytime soon.
Agree, cars are not going anywhere soon. Younger people living in cities with good public transportation have always had fewer cars and not seeing that change.
Steve
What I see changing is younger people living in cities with good public transportation leaving them because they can’t afford to live there any more. As long as rents rise faster than incomes that’s inevitable. Cf. Figure 2 here (pdf).