In his Washington Post column George Will, assessing the first 500 days of the Biden presidency, takes note of something I have mentioned before—the administration is experiencing something that is the common experience of every president. However focused on domestic matters a president may be events have a way of turning a president’s attention towards foreign policy:
Biden has had the experience common to presidents: Presidents do not control their agendas; the world gets a vote. When Harold Macmillan, Britain’s prime minister, 1957-1963, was asked what most troubled him, he reportedly replied, “Events, my dear boy, events.â€
Pesky things, those. George W. Bush began by aiming to be a bipartisan education president, collaborating with Sen. Edward M. Kennedy on “No Child Left Behind†to banish “the soft bigotry of low expectations,†etc. Things went swimmingly through his 234th day as president, which was Sept. 10, 2001.
Perhaps the most important of Biden’s 500 days was Feb. 24, when Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, setting in motion momentous events, substantially influenced by Biden’s deft diplomacy. These events are pulling Germany toward a world role commensurate with its geopolitical potential, and they are bringing NATO, through Finland’s coming membership, to about 833 miles of Russia’s border.
Unfortunately for Biden, what Americans usually want in foreign policy is as little of it as possible, so his stunning achievement in the Ukraine crisis — reviving the concept of “the West†— will pay scant dividends. Similarly, a tight labor market is the best anti-poverty program, and a downward distributor of wealth — but not when inflation more than erases wage gains.
Mr. Will goes on to present President Biden’s greatest hope should he choose to seek re-election in 2024:
When you’re hot, you’re hot, and when you’re not, infant formula disappears. Panicked parents, deprived babies? What next? The Wall Street Journal reports: “During the past 80 years, the Fed has never lowered inflation as much as it is setting out to do now — by 4 percentage points — without causing recession.â€
Four consecutive presidents while in office have experienced their parties’ losses of the Senate and House. Biden could become the fifth, and could manage this in just 24 months.
If he seeks reelection, he will need an opponent so ghastly that voters can respond as the New York Sun did with its five-word 1904 endorsement of President Theodore Roosevelt’s reelection: “THEODORE! With all thy faults.â€
To all appearances the Republicans appear very eager to furnish such a candidate which could mean that in 2024 we’ll be treated to the spectacle of two octogenarians running against each other for the presidency.
Update
Add this from political reporter Peter Roff at Newsweek:
The next election, as much as the mainstream media won’t like it, isn’t going to be a referendum on Trump. It’s going to be about President Joe Biden and how the Democrats have run the country for the last two years, even though—and this is something else that’s been overlooked—the GOP is in charge of more states now that at almost any time in history.
The Biden presidency is failing. At least that’s the perception people have. His approval rating, which started in the low- to mid-60s when he took office, has now sunk below 40. That’s not good for him, and it’s not good for his party. Democrats are getting the blame for things that are happening as a result of policies Biden has put in place, as well as for things harmful to the interests of the United States over which he has no direct control. That’s created a positive political environment for the GOP, which has amassed a nearly double-digit lead on the crucial polling question of which party voters want to control Congress after the next election.
How people feel, and why, is what ties all this together. The environment drives turnout and, right now, GOP voters are energized and engaged.
Let me be very clear. I don’t want Joe Biden and Donald Trump to face off again in 2024. I didn’t want them to be the candidates in 2020—I thought they were both too old to be president. In 2024 Joe Biden will be 81 and Donald Trump will be 77. Neither one of these men is the person we need to be president in 2025.
“momentous events, substantially influenced by Biden’s deft diplomacy. These events are pulling Germany toward a world role commensurate with its geopolitical potential.”
Again, the delusions bite deep and hard. “Deft diplomacy”? Biden’s handlers refused to even acknowledge the Russian demands for negotiations; there was never a reply, not even a receipt. The proposed treaties went straight to the round file.
That refusal to engage with Russia was the proximate cause of the war. The ultimate cause was the American coup that removed the legitimate, democratically elected government of Ukraine and that installed the present Nazi-infested junta.
And rather than pulling Germany into a more aggressive role in the world, the US diplomacy has thrown the EU and NATO into total disarray and caused deep divisions within both. Our sanctions have hurt them more than Russia.
“and they are bringing NATO, through Finland’s coming membership, to about 833 miles of Russia’s border”
The sheer ignorance here is stupefying. If NATO admits Finland, it won’t be 833 miles from Russia’s border, it will be right on the border, and only a couple hundred miles from Russia’s most sensitive strategic assets. This highly aggressive and provocative move may well bring another military response from Russia. Most likely, Russia will move large numbers of tactical and strategic nukes next to Finland and the Baltic states.
George Will has become Dr. Strangelove. We are taking one giant step after another towards world war.
China has denounced the US as being the greatest threat to world peace on the planet. And they are right. We are the Evil Empire. We have become a rogue terrorist state gone berserker. We have conducted 50 invasions of countries at peace with us since 1945, and we have manipulated the elections in another 30.
On this Memorial Day, I think of my grandfather who fought in WW I, and my father who fought in WW II, largely over the exact same territory. Both came home physically unharmed, and to me, at least, pretty normal.
If the US is now become the Hun and the Nazi horde, all their sacrifices, and all the sacrifices of their brothers-in-arms were wasted.
What’s in the water in Washington D.C?
“substantially influenced by Biden’s deft diplomacy”.
First, diplomacy is about achieving goals without resorting to force; or failing that, supporting the military in winning the conflict. Since the war is ongoing and Russia hasn’t been defeated; the most that can be said is the books are still out on the effectiveness of Biden’s diplomacy.
Beyond that are questionable assertions about Germany’s role or that putting Finland in NATO is in the American or NATO’s interest.
I agree that giving Republicans power (in Congress) and a Republican candidate for President (whether Trump or otherwise) is the greatest antidote to Biden’s political troubles. Republicans still have an incoherent agenda like the 2010-2014 Congresses; a coherent agenda will always beat an incoherent one.
My assessment is if the war lasts into 2024 and the economy is like today with serious problems in the supply of food and energy; then yes Trump could have an appeal since he’s the only significant figure in both parties to have expressed a skeptical opinion on the preference of supporting Ukraine instead of encouraging the war’s end via negotiations. It is not the most likely scenario, but Biden seems to be working his hardest to bring it to fruition. That’s something Democrats should think about….
“Unfortunately for Biden, what Americans usually want in foreign policy is as little of it as possible”
Really? Seems to me we have generally been way too willing to go to war and then remain at war even if had no goals. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, even Grenada and all of the little places where we are involved. We have always been much too eager to bomb people and go to war.
Steve
Your interpretation and mine are very different, steve. I think that Americans are by and large disinterested in foreign policy. Yours is apparently that they are warlike. I think that presidents see going to war as a way of demonstrating that they’re tough and willing to use force to defend the U. S. and American interests.
The two exceptions to that in the post-war period have been Eisenhower and Carter. By the time he assumed office the American people were already preconvinced that Eisenhower was willing to use force so he didn’t need to demonstrate how tough he was. Carter was convinced that the U. S. could be defended and its interests promoted without using force. IMO that view has been disproven and we’ve been paying the price of Carter’s conviction for the last 40 years.
†The next election, as much as the mainstream media won’t like it, isn’t going to be a referendum on Trump. It’s going to be about President Joe Biden and how the Democrats have run the country for the last two years,â€
I agree wholeheartedly. There are so many red flags germinating under Biden’s sub par presidential performance. Today saw a photo showing a mile-long string of cars waiting for baby formula. Yesterday there was another photo of Uvalde parents chanting and booing Biden, so much, that he left the area without talking to any of the parents. Scattered around were some signs pointing to a border he has never bothered to visit, despite the havoc created by his policies to border towns like Uvalde. Add in rising oil prices, inflation, shortages, our Ukraine overindulgence, supply chain problems, the spiraling cost of goods, the never-ending state of emergency Biden clings to, and it makes sense that 80% of people think we are on the wrong track.
Returning to gun control demands, threatening/harassing the Supreme Court over an abortion decision not yet affirmed, calling their opponents racists and domestic terrorists rather than participating in a civil debate of issues seems to be the main thrust of their oftentimes meaningless, hostile rhetoric. However, screaming ninnies get old after a while, which is why so many people are turning away, not necessarily towards the establishment Republican Party, but to a populist people-oriented movement within the R party.
@steve
Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, even Grenada and all of the little places where we are involved.
You need to add WW1, Ukraine, and Russia to your list. With the exception of the Banana Wars, they were progressive projects. (Yes @steve, there are progressive Republicans.)
If you think there is a problem with Americans pushing for war, look in the mirror. You are the one supporting the “march to war” against Russia over Ukraine, and my guess is that you know as much about Granada as you do about Ukraine – “Cuba/Russia bad”.
(As a Marine, it is difficult to spew venom at a Navy Corpsman, but you really try my patience.)
Not really trying to make a point about who instigated the wars. My point is that Americans support going to war. For sure different presidents have pushed wars for their own reasons but they have a receptive audience. We much too readily get talked into bombing snf invading other countries.
Ukraine/Russia. Pretty sure Russia invaded Ukraine. Sometimes you need to do the right thing and supporting Ukraine against a war of aggression is one of those.
Steve
@steve
Sometimes you need to do the right thing and supporting Ukraine against a war of aggression is one of those.
The same has been claimed about every war on your list – “Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, even Grenada”. You complain about the neocons, but you are one. When Ukraine turns into a shitshow, you will blame somebody else.
Keep beating the war drums.
We are already at war.
Really? As I recall we actually we directly put troops on the ground or bombed all of those places. We are supplying weapons to Ukraine. I still have no idea why we invaded Iraq and think Libya was mostly a mistake. We go into these wars with no real end game and not much purpose other than some liberty/we are liberators nonsense or fighting communism. This seems pretty clear. Country A invaded Country B. We arent liberating anyone. We arent bombing anyone. This doesnt seem like those other places at all.
Steve