The editors of the Wall Street Journal rush to the defense of Sweden’s national reaction to COVID-19:
The American left has misunderstood Sweden for years, holding up its significantly liberalized economy as a socialist utopia. Now the misapprehension has moved in the opposite direction, as progressives fret over the country’s supposed economy-over-life approach to Covid-19.
While its neighbors and the rest of Europe imposed strict lockdowns, Stockholm has taken a relatively permissive approach. It has focused on testing and building up health-care capacity while relying on voluntary social distancing, which Swedes have embraced.
The country isn’t a free-for-all. Restaurants and bars remain open, though only for table service. Younger students are still attending school, but universities have moved to remote learning. Gatherings with more than 50 people are banned, along with visits to elderly-care homes. Even with relatively lax rules, travel in the country dropped some 90% over Easter weekend.
Officials say the country’s strategy—which is similar to the United Kingdom’s before it reversed abruptly in March—is to contain the virus enough to not overwhelm its health system. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, said the country isn’t actively trying to achieve broad immunity. But he predicted late last month that “we could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks.†Some British public-health officials reportedly leaned toward less restrictive measures before the country’s leaders imposed a harsh lockdown.
I don’t have a dog in this hunt. To be honest to the extent that I’m interested in the strategies being used in other countries at all I’m more interested in Portugal’s than Sweden’s. Portugal, sitting right next door to countries that have mortality rates an order of magnitude higher than theirs, shut down about the same time as we did here in Illinois and they’re beginning to open up again. The largest difference is that the Portuguese paid more attention to nursing homes and hospitals than we have.
I think that longing for a national strategy for the U. S. only makes sense if you’re sitting in New York or Washington, DC. Our circumstances vary too much among different parts of the country. I do wish that the Trump Administration were acting to limit travel on the interstates to trucks hauling freight and that there was a national program of epidemiological testing.
At work so cant get behind firewall. Did they address Sweden’s economic performance. The AEI guy claimed that he looked at their numbers, economic, and they look about the same as everyone else’s. So they had more deaths with no economic improvement. Tastes great and less filling.
Steve
Here’s the extent of their remarks about Sweden’s economic performance:
The editors’ message is actually pretty moderate: it’s too early to tell. That’s in opposition to the condemnation in other media outlets.
As with everybody else’s policies a lot depends on your assumptions.
So their central bank projects GDP loss similar to ours. Too early to tell.
Steve
I don’t get into the Sweden debates because their model is based on the belief that its response needs to be a marathon not a sprint. By its own objects its too early to tell, except for the part where they did not implement it (the most vulnerable were not protected early on; I think they assumed that existing precautions at old age homes were adequate and that monitoring symptoms would be sufficient). But if its much different than other European countries, will know in 2021, I suppose.
“I think that longing for a national strategy for the U. S. only makes sense if you’re sitting in New York or Washington, DC. Our circumstances vary too much among different parts of the country.”
That would be a bingo…….
I posted an article with an imbedded interview with the Swedish advisor Sunday or Monday. Kind of out of it, can’t remember. For those who bothered to listen the guy pointed out that the mortality result needed at least another six months to sort out.
As for comparing GDP impacts now, or ever, (given differences in GDP composition) can only be described as bizarre.
So much to write, but just consider: 1) the 30MM unemployed, 2) the suicides, 3) the depressed and substance abusers ignited, 4) the destruction of physical and intellectual capital, 5) the loss of the entrepreneurial class, 6) the destruction of civil liberties, 7) oncoming famine and death, 8) need I go on?
The notion that a virus that may ultimately, despite all the now obviously fraudulent statistics, be at the upper end of flu pandemics warranted our response is ludicrous on its face. Its absurd risk free hysteria.
Or, its political……………
There should be an evaluation of the responses between the States.
For example, Utah has 1/10 the toll of Colorado. Oregon has 1/8 of Washington. Ohio has 1/4 of Michigan. Arkansas has 1/5 of Missouri.
Such huge differences between neighboring States are not due to chance alone.
Maybe the testing rate per million population has something to do with it. Not that that would change the actual morbidity just the measured morbidity.
‘I do wish that the Trump Administration were acting to limit travel on the interstates to trucks hauling freight’
Considering how interconnected commerce is between the various states including cross-country (not to mention CA and MX) instituting restrictions where trucks could and could not go would not only unfeasible but would have almost certainly caused an absolutely complete breakdown in food supply, just to start. Almost every balanced meal nowadays contains foods from half a dozen different states and countries, and I’m not even starting on the packaging. Besides, natural social distancing in the truck industry is the norm, not the exception, except maybe at the loading and unloading points, and I believe they instituted safety measures fairly on. You think the TP scuffles were bad? It would have been Venezuelan food riots throughout the US had something like this been mandated.
‘and that there was a national program of epidemiological testing.’
Considering how unreliable the tests still are, what would have been the point? Testing of the most at risk and those serving them would have been more to the point. I think this longing for universal testing has been discussed than once on this blog.
Steve: This is an article about the experience of a doctor from the UK who was pressed into ICU duty during the pandemic. It would be interesting to know how it compared to your ordeal.
https://quillette.com/2020/05/03/an-icu-doctor-reports-from-the-frontline/
Utah reports a test positivity rate of 4% while Colorado is 20%.
In fact Utah has performed 2x the number of tests compared to Colorado.
It is not an artifact of testing.
Tars Tarkas:
That’s freight. Food is freight. Our problem is greatly complicated by people not just freight continuing to travel across the country.
We never got as swamped as the hospitals in NYC. We pushing up against some of our limits but we started planning way ahead. We had a team of 4 critical care docs, two of them mine, who start planning way early. We managed to rent extra vents. We have a number of ICU docs who split time elsewhere, like Pulmonary docs who do a week of ICU then 4 or 5 weeks of pulmonary. We pretty much put all o them in the ICU so we needed fairy minimal additional ICU doc help. My group helped as needed as the primary secondary help group, but we didnt have to help a lot. Our AP nurses had a lot of former ICU experience so they helped a fair amount. Proning takes a lot of manpower and if it goes poorly you need people to help rescue, which we are good at doing. My office is next door to one of the ICUs and I told them I could come help if and when needed. They didnt do things they way I normally would but I restrained the as*hole doctor part and wasn’t too critical. Put in some lines for them. Intubated.
What we found was that the regular ICU people were very happy to have us help. When we didnt know their paperwork they didnt care or get upset. For our part we were pretty impressed with the ICU staff and what they were working through full time. (We were just helping them really.) We bought them lunch the last 2 Mondays.
We benefitted greatly from staying in contact with NYC. We abandoned the idea of early intubation after just a couple of days, well before it was in the news. One of the advantages we have, I think, is that we function as a multi specialty critical care team, so we have input from multiple specialties and multiple sources. One of the Pulmonary docs brought us the idea of steroids. One of my guys was the one who advocated first for aggressive proning. The ID people brought in the funky drugs we dont normally work with. One of the ED critical care docs came up with some nifty device that we thought made non-invasive ventilation safer. (Or the intubation box, cant remember which but I think the point stands.)
The general impression we all have is that we avoided becoming another NYC because we shutdown sooner than NYC. Even the ideologically conservative docs (except those who dont work with sick people, some of those still think it was all a hoax) agree.
Our sticking points all along were the inability to get testing done or that it would take so long to come back as to be useless, and the constant concerns about PPE, which we still have. Also tons of uncertainty. We had to make so many decisions w/o any data or guidance. Still do. I still get calls almost daily asking what we should do about some situation no own thought about.
Steve
‘Tars Tarkas:
That’s freight. Food is freight. Our problem is greatly complicated by people not just freight continuing to travel across the country.’
Freight haulers tend to be individuals or pairs, so they naturally socially distance. The main venue where they mingle with other people (and thus spread disease) is at truck stops and other restaurants, most if not all of which were shut down or only provided take-out. They don’t stand and gab with the loading dock workers in tightly enclosed spaces, loading docks are usually fairly spacious if not open to the air, plus they gotta get loaded and unloaded and git or they lose $ especially now. The freight they carry is 12-96 hours away from the loading point, so any COVID-19 that might have glommed onto packaging will have that much more time to deteriorate and become less infections. Ditto onto personal possessions. In short, freight trucks and freight haulers are a relatively low risk avenue to spread COVID-19 compared to airplanes, trains, and buses (or even cars), which specialize in packing as many people in confined areas for long periods of time.
And I agree, having this delayed post/editing function is great, I edited my post at least three times while the clock ran. Wish other sites I used had this function.
Curious,
“For example, Utah has 1/10 the toll of Colorado.”
By what metric?
I think the disease has progressed differently here in Colorado, starting in the mountain communities and then moving to the plains. Currently, the hardest-hit areas are rural areas – two mountain counties with over 1000 cases per 100k population and three counties in the NE part of the state that have hotspots thanks largely to epidemics in food processing plants, prisons and nursing homes in those counties. Together there are more cases in these counties than Denver and an equal or higher per-capita death rate, despite Denver having a much larger population living in closer proximity.
“Utah reports a test positivity rate of 4% while Colorado is 20%.”
The positivity rates may not be comparable. I don’t know about Utah, but limitations on who can get the test and how those testing policies change over time and greatly skew the positivity rate.
“In fact Utah has performed 2x the number of tests compared to Colorado.”
As for the number of tests, Utah has done about 126k for a population of about 3.2 million (~3.9% of the population) while Colorado has done 84k tests for a population of 5.8 million (~1.25% of the population) – assuming no one was tested more than once, which we know is not the case.
And I think there are probably discrepancies in testing and death statistics. Not all states or even localities have used the same metrics to justify a test nor have they all used the same tests. Different tests likely have different error rates.
Here in Colorado, it’s been determined that Covid was likely here as early as mid-January, so there are likely uncounted deaths. Looking at the CDC’s excess deaths counting (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) the difference between Utah and many other states, including Colorado is stark.
Finally, Colorado and Utah are neighbors but there aren’t actually that many connections between the two states. There are only three major roads directly connecting the two and only one of those is an interstate. The Front Range of Colorado – where the bulk of the population lives, is about 500 miles from Salt Lake, the major population area in Utah. The quickest way to drive is actually to cut up to Wyoming and take I-80 over. Bottom line is that there isn’t a ton of interstate traffic between the two states, so cross-contamination is pretty limited compared to most other parts of the US.
I’m tired. At this point all I can offer is that:
1) the hard lockdown vs mild lockdown is a very weak predictor
2) the vulnerable have been horribly hit; we should have focused if we really cared
3) the costs, short and long term, are most likely in excess of the benefits. Spare me the money vs lives. Think like an adult.
4) this has provided an opportunity like almost no other for the big government types to grab power and smash civil liberties. This is a cost of immeasurable magnitude.
5) and the politicization is a national shame and tragedy
Oh, and anyone citing statistics right now better be careful. Its fully politicized. Very sad. Stats are shit.
And so now is commentary. Predictable.
I look @ Sweden’s response to CV as being reasonable, focused on the vulnerable and moderate in not overly ravaging it’s economy. While people can criticize it’s case and mortality figures, they are still within manageable proportions. And, if in the near future, more herd immunity is achieved they will ultimately be in better shape than the bubble-packed Americans.
Op Ed from today’s LA Times by Swedish Ambassador Karen Olofsdotter offered an interesting perspective on her country’s approach:
“Swedish laws on communicable diseases are mostly based on voluntary measures and on individual responsibility. Sweden’s coronavirus strategy builds upon those principles. It’s a strategy that makes sense for Sweden, but we are humble enough to admit that it may make less sense elsewhere, because all societies are different.
The key here is the high level of trust in Swedish society. According to the World Values Survey, there is a high level of interpersonal trust between Swedes, and there is also a high level of trust in public authorities. The authorities also have a high level of trust in citizens to heed their advice.
The use of recommendations in public health efforts — rather than mandates — is a common strategy in Sweden.â€
I did not see how the US fared in the World Values Survey. Based on these comments, I suspect we did not measure up to Swedish society’s trust in government and willingness to voluntarily comply with the recommendations of authority. When the virus has run its course and we look back, it may well be that Sweden did not fare any better or worse than the US with respect to spread and morbidity. However, I suspect the psyche of the two countries will be very different. Does anyone remember what it’s like to trust your government?
The man who fucked it all up.
https://hotair.com/archives/john- s-2/2020/05/05/uk-scientist-championed-lock-orders-broke-advice-letting-girlfriend-visit-home/
Good points MB. This country has gotten to be too polarized and jaded to have opposing parties cooperatively work or accomplish anything together Thus we have an environment where trust is impossible to achieve, especially in the wake of the cynical TDS crowd.
Drew, It was Ferguson’s highly inaccurate CV model which injected fear and panic into the virus’s introduction to the public. However, it was Fauci who has carried the ball ever since, maintaining this fear throughout the endless shelter in place mandates.
“It was Ferguson’s highly inaccurate CV model which”
Did you read it? I am betting you have not so you are comfortable making stuff up.
“”Its fully politicized.”
Especially when people dont even read the stuff and just make things up.
” in not overly ravaging it’s economy”
Sweden is predicting the same drop in GDP we are expecting.
Steve
Andy — it is not to pick on Colorado. The toll was the simplest one — deaths.
My point was to the extent there is uncertainty about infection numbers and deaths, they tend to make Utah look even better.
Do I understand why? No. It could be factors that are not actionable; like younger demographics, or the strength of non-government organizations like the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints.
But given Utah looks like it will perform as well as Japan, or even as good as South Korea (!), it is worth finding if they are doing something subtly different.
Ferguson’s modeling, initially predicted extraordinarily high mortality numbers from CV, for both the UK and the US. These numbers were applied as serious measurements for future outcomes of this virus, acting like a pace car establishing the degree of panic felt by late February into March. However, Ferguson suddenly reconfigured these numbers downward, dramatically, after which the IHME model came into play, and was then extensively used by Fauci & Birx in demonstrating the probable range of deaths to be expected. This model also underwent many revisions, pulling back their death tally with each revision. Neither model has shown an accuracy in the course this virus has taken. Thus, inaccurate does accurately describe the modeling.
GDP is only one variable to evaluate the extend of damage done to an economy, as well as the psychi of it’s citizens, by the methods used in addressing a pandemic. Sweden targeted their COVID response so businesses could function on a more limited basis, making any drop in economical growth, more likely easier to recover from than what the US will experience. School age children didn’t lose any educational advantage, with colleges being the only academy shifting to remote learning. Generally, there should be less emotional fragmentation, as at least some patterns of socialization in Sweden were maintained, probably resulting in less reticence to resume normal activities when returning to a fully opened market, versus one which almost totally ground to a halt.
“Ferguson’s modeling, initially predicted extraordinarily high mortality numbers from CV, for both the UK and the US. ”
Then you didnt read it did you? That means you are making this up. You have no idea what it actually said. The sheer intellectual laziness of people amazes me sometimes, but it does make it easier to believe lies.
“So far, Sweden has banned gatherings larger than 50 people, closed high schools and universties, and urged those over 70 or otherwise at greater risk from the virus to self-isolate.”
https://www.kusi.com/as-virus-deaths-rise-sweden-sticks-to-low-scale-lockdown/
“. Sweden targeted their COVID response so businesses could function on a more limited basis, making any drop in economical growth, more likely easier to recover from than what the US will experience.”
So you are predicting better economic performance than the Swedes are predicting. You must be an expert on Sweden.
“or the strength of non-government organizations like the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints.”
It certainly looks like social cohesion or trust is a factor present in places that performed better.
Steve
Social cohesion is a possible factor — not a proven or probable factor.
It should be investigated.
Curious,
Didn’t mean to suggest you were picking on Colorado – I just wanted to note that Colorado and Utah are very different despite being in the same region.
That said I agree it would be nice to know why the difference in experience exists. Hard to suss that out without more data.
Steve, you don’t seem to recognize factual generalities. So, inform me about the details you find so relevant in defending Ferguson’s COVID modeling.
As for higher expectations of Sweden’s economical recovery, because of it’s moderated approach to this virus, it’s all speculative until the present catches up with future estimates, proving whether or not Sweden’s method was more appropriate to that of those calling for a total lock down. However, sans such solid crystal ball proof, I’m expressing a POV based on a belief there will be less psychological trauma experienced by a populace, who does not have to involuntarily capitulate to lock down rules they may not support. Consequently, there will be less hesitancy to resume pre-virus normalcy, along with a market bouncing back more quickly than we will see here in the US.
Fundamentally, I believe free will practices create better outcomes than harsh enforcement ones,
I believe that the people who live in a country usually understand it better.
Why dont you even want to read what Ferguson wrote? I am thinking it is so you can continue with false claims. I have already described it. There was a wide range in the predicted number of deaths.
Steve