You might want to take a look at this assessment of the emissions of electric vehicles at RealClearInvestigations.
My own view is
- EVs are good niche vehicles but not workable for everyone based on present technology.
- Hybrids are a better solution for more people and require the production of a lot fewer batteries.
- We have very little basis for believing that the production of batteries can be scaled up high enough or fast enough for everyone to be driving only EVs.
- The main effect of California and states that emulate California by banning the sale of new ICE vehicles will be to goose the market for used vehicles which is a perverse outcome.
- The power distribution grid will not be able to handle everybody driving an EV for the foreseeable future.
Shorter: Elon Musk is a smart guy. Targeting people in the top 10% of income earners for his EV product was a good idea and Tesla appears to be moving back in that direction.
Current technology cannot get us where we need to go. That said, nearly all fo the posts here and the following comments ignore the rapid changes seen in EVs and green energy tech. Anyway, the goals are too ambitious and will need to be scaled back.
“Elon Musk is a smart guy” Then explain Twitter. /s
Steve
In that case there is no problem to address. We can depend on future technology to take care of it.
He doesn’t consult me on these purchases.
“Then explain Twitter.”
I doubt he is buying it based upon rational financial valuation.
“.. ignore the rapid changes seen in EVs and green energy tech.”
No doubt, by 2100 the technology and infrastructure will support a material share.
Musk will cut overhead, goose publicity and wait for the right time to launch the public stock offering, probably to the 10% of earners mentioned beforehand.
And as for now, buying a used EV (of any sort) is a crap shoot, the battery may last but the various electronic charging- cooling sensors and relays won’t and there is a semiconductor shortage. Toyota Prius appears to be an exception.
“Musk will cut overhead, ……”
Based upon what I have seen, it is perhaps the most target rich environment ever…..
The main problem is that the entire electrical generating and transmission network would have to be tripled in capacity all the way down to the individual home.
However, if the source of electricity is renewables, then the cost of the batteries needed to smooth out the intermittent sources is several GDP of the jurisdiction served. For the US that would something like $100 trillion, or so. Batteries have a limited useful life and have to be replaced every 5 to 10 years, so that is a recurring cost. The useful lives of wind turbines and solar panels is also on the order of 5 to 10 years.
With respect to EV’s, again the killer is the battery. EV batteries are typically warranted for 8 years or 100,000 miles, and then they need to be replaced. The costs of new batteries plus installation is enormous, often $10,000 to $30,000. Consequently, EV’s have NO resale value. At the end of the battery life the vehicle has to be scrapped. At 100,000 miles a gasoline/diesel vehicle still has another 100,000 miles of useful life and resale value.
PS. Regarding new technology, electrochemistry was largely a solved problem by WW II. Every possible chemical reaction that could be used in a battery is known, and the energy produced can be calculated. There are extensive lists of electrochemical half cells available for these calculation. There are no discoveries to be made in the chemistry.
The currently favored lithium ion batteries have an energy storage density capability (J/kg or J/L) that is only 10% or so of gasoline and diesel. There is no possible way that any battery will ever close that gap. This is a thermodynamic issue.
PPS. Is it necessary to remind people of the safety issue. EV manufacturers recommend the vehicles not be stored inside garages or next to homes. They also recommend batteries only be charged to something like 80% of capacity.
PPPS. Manhattan Contrarian has all the details. Absolutely the best source for renewables and their real costs.
Now, now Bob. Don’t let sober analytics get in the way of Steve’s wet dream.
He’s been telling us about breakthrough technology for 10 years now. Let him dream, the poor dear.
The highest mileage Teslas are hitting about 400k-500k miles. At that point they have needed one battery change. They are expected to last for 1500 charges or about 300k-500k miles. The standard warranty is 100k-150k and you can buy an unlimited range warranty on battery if you want. Data is showing about 5%-10% loss of range at 100k miles, depending upon how much you supercharge. Again, you guys are 10-15 years behind the curve. Go talk with an engineer who trained in this century and actually follows this stuff or works on them.
That Prius I had that you guys said wouldn’t last past 100k miles? Made it to a bit over 200k before it got T-boned by some girl texting and driving. When your predictions are wrong 100% of the time it might make you wonder.
Steve
I’m kind of in the middle on this. I think EV’s will be an important part of future transportation, but won’t replace the ICE for a very long time, if ever.
Given our driving habits and circumstances (work from home, short drives, solar on our house), an EV makes perfect sense for us. We would save a lot of money long-term too, but they are way too expensive to justify right now. And Bob is wrong about EVs having no resale value because we’ve look at they ain’t cheap.
Currently, there is really high demand for EV’s and hybrids. Like you have to order months or years in advance. There is a lot of room in the market IMO for more of these vehicles.
Hybrids are a great option, but also have downsides since there are two drivetrains and more complicated systems. A plug-in hybrid might be a sweet spot – you can run on battery for around-town travel, and you have the engine for longer trips.
Andy, as usual our views are pretty closely aligned.
California / EU may well succeed in banning vehicles with integrated ICE. But also a thriving after-market for non-integrated ICE on EV’s.
An anecdotal story: a friend of ours. living near San Francisco on the N Coast, had a problem with his Tesla. After going in for a repair it was 5 months before it was returned because of trouble getting a part replacement. I don’t have any idea how frequent such a long wait time happens for most Tesla repairs. A redeeming factor, though, was that he was given a free Tesla loaner during the down time.
Link goes to used Teslas. 2015 models with 100k miles asking for about $42,000.
https://www.truecar.com/used-cars-for-sale/listings/tesla/year-2015/location-lehigh-valley-pa/
My stance has always been that they are a niche car now. Until the charger issue gets solved they wont go beyond that. Where I differ is that I keep up on how the tech is progressing so I dont say stuff like IVs have no resale value.
Steve
You bet, steve. 2% global fleet penetration. They are taking the world by storm.
won’t replace the ICE for a very long time, if ever.:
Or. Until that is mandated.
Adoption of EV’s will be fairly minimal during the lifetime of everyone on this blog. Perhaps even their kids lifetime. Adoption is only making headway through tremendous subsidy or dictatorial governments. All for a dubious full life cycle benefit.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/zero-emissions-electric-vehicles-heres-why-claim-has-zero-basis
Drew: 2% global fleet penetration.
About 9% of new car sales are plug-in. Manufacturers are gearing up to meet expected demand.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the total number of hybrids and EVs sold in the U. S. is around 8.7%. Not all hybrids are plug-ins; therefore the total number is below that.
Dave Schuler: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics . . .
Drew was referring to the global situation, which is approaching 10% plug-in. While the US is an important market, it still only represents a small percentage of global car sales.
New technologies usually reach a tipping point when market share reaches about 5%. The US is nearing 5%, California is at 17%. The US may lag somewhat, but that won’t impact the overall trajectory of the industry.