Let’s engage in a little thought experiment. Imagine you are a diplomat in 1916 of a country that an alliance with Tsarist Russia. Do you still have that alliance in 1918? At this point Russia is governed by Lenin and his fellow Bolsheviks and their interests, objectives, and attitudes are drastically different from those of the Tsar.
In his latest Washington Post column David Ignatius makes a darned good case for an urgent intercession of the United States to prevent war between Armenia and Azerbaijan:
The United States, Russia, France and Germany have urged diplomacy, and Pashinyan said he and his colleagues have talked with top officials from all of those countries. Russia has offered to host peace talks. But so far there has been no evident progress toward a cease-fire or settlement negotiations.
The State Department has been increasingly concerned about the showdown between a big U.S. ally (NATO-member Turkey) and a close Russian one (Armenia). But President Trump, who in the past has boasted of his friendship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has so far been silent about the situation. Vice President Joe Biden said Tuesday the U.S. should move “immediately to deescalate the situation.â€
In case you’re wondering about the nature of this conflict and, indeed, where the heck Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh are and what Turkey’s interest is, I’ve put a map at the top of this post, helpfully provided by the BBC. As you can see Armenia is bordered by Turkey, Azerbaijan by Russia, and Nagorno-Karabakh is a small strip of land just about 30km wide and about 100km long between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The population of Azerbaijan is Muslim and mostly Turkic people. Those are Turkey’s interests. The people in Nagorno-Karabakh are Armenians and Christian. Armenia and Azerbaijan are former Soviet republics. Those define Russia’s interests. It should be obvious that by location, history, and religion Russia has substantial interest in this matter.
What is the U. S. interest in the conflict other than a wish that war be avoided? I would submit that we none other than a putative alliance with Turkey. Our alliance was with a different country—Kemalist Turkey. Kemalist Turkey was secular, largely run by its military, and closely allied with the U. S. Erdogan’s Turkey is Islamist, irredentist, authoritarian, and not aligned with the U. S. as it has proved again and again over the last 20 years.
Will U. S. intercession improve the situation or make it worse? I would submit that under the circumstances it would make it worse and that, if there is any peace to be made, Russia is in a very good position to make it.
Pretending that Turkey is an ally does not make it so in any way other than on paper. Boot Islamist Turkey out of of NATO. Problem solved. To quote Lord Palmerston, we have no eternal allies only eternal interests.
Is there any prospect whatever of a Biden Administration staying clear of this situation? I don’t see it and IMO Mr. Ignatius’s column provides substantial evidence that is the case.
The US interest is to stay out of the war since it already started.
Biden thinking the US has a role to play in the war is a big big warning sign.
That’s basically my view. Along with I do not understand taking actions that do not help us just because they might hurt Russia.
Here’s Biden’s statement:
https://joebiden.com/2020/09/27/hostilities-in-nagorno-karabakh-statement-by-vice-president-joe-biden/
Ignatius does not characterize it accurately. I don’t really see anything objectionable in it and it’s certainly not a call for US intervention.
We obviously have no business there except maybe to give moral support.
As for our alliance with Turkey, I don’t think it should be jettisoned. Or, it should at least the effects of doing that should be carefully considered and weighed before doing that. I think kicking Turkey out of NATO would be a cure that’s worse than the disease.
Instead I would make the limits of our treaty obligations to Turkey clear and explicitly state that article V assistance does not apply to blowback from Turkish adventurism.
Hmmmm. Biden specifically says third parties should stay out of it. Calls for diplomatic resolution. Sounds OK to me. So what’s the problem here?
Steve
I choose my words carefully. “Intercession” not “intervention”. IMO American intervention should be out of the question and intercession is itself problematic. Who would be engaging in diplomacy if not third parties? The reason that Armenia and Azerbaijan are preparing to go to war is that diplomacy between the two has failed.
He is asking that Russia and other area countries help negotiate.
” The United States should be pushing for more observers along the ceasefire line and calling for Russia to stop cynically providing arms to both sides, while reviewing our own security assistance programs to ensure no military capabilities are being repurposed for offensive means.
The Trump administration also needs to step up its diplomatic efforts, together with fellow OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs France and Russia, to seek a peaceful resolution and to support confidence-building measures.”
Steve
I think that any action by the U. S. WRT the conflict whether diplomatic or military will be construed by Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan as U. S. interference and a prelude to aggression. We have poisoned the well.
Meh. I think a public statement of this sort is expected and will actually have little impact.
Steve