I found this observation of George Beebe and Suzanne Loftus’s in their post at Responsible Statecraft worthy of consideration:
Although the United States has strong reasons to avoid direct involvement in war against Russia, the Ukrainians may well believe that drawing Moscow into a clash with the US military is their best hope for victory. An American approach to preventing escalation that is premised on tight Ukrainian discipline looks increasingly unwise.
I don’t know what the Ukrainians are thinking but I agree with the observation that they may see it in their interest to draw the U. S. military into the war with Russia more directly than we already are. In their situation it would only be prudent.
It also seems to me that there are factors which would increase or decrease that risk. For example, Ukraine’s counter-offensive succeeding completely would decrease the risk. It faring poorly would increase it.
“Ukraine’s counter-offensive succeeding completely would decrease the risk”
On the other hand, if Ukraine were to successfully pursue the goals of the counter-offensive, takeover Crimea and “De-Russify” (i.e. ethnic cleansing); Russian strategic escalation (aka MAD) against Ukraine and NATO is highly likely.
Ukrainian success according to Ukrainian stated goals heightens the chance of Russian escalation.
Ukrainian failure heightens the risk of Ukrainians doing their hardest to draw the US in harder with resultant escalation.
Ukraine has asked a few times for NATO membership – I think it’s pretty clear they want NATO actively involved.
A Ukrainian victory or even a stalemate is an utter impossibility. Russia’s population is almost 8 times that of Ukraine, and the fraction of Ukraine’s population, now less than 20 M, that are military age males is very low, the cannon fodder having decamped for the EU some time ago. Also, Russia is probably the 4th largest economy in the world with practically infinite natural resources (much, much more than the US), and a modern comprehensive manufacturing sector, which the US no longer has, having sold it to China.
And there is the issue of goals. Putin, Lavrov, and Medvedev have all implied the the new goal is occupation of all of Ukraine, at least temporarily. What Russia would annex has not been stated, but everything east of the Dnieper and the whole Black Sea coast is likely.
The US cannot prevent this short of nuclear war, in which the entire West is dead, and China reigns supreme. I don’t think even our neocons, insane as they are, will go down that road.
Here is this shocking, sickening truth. Russia is the heir and trustee of Western culture and civilization, and Christianity, and, wait for it, democracy. The US and Europe are not possessors of any of those things.
Western civilzation in the West is dead. Go read Turchin’s new book, “End Times,†for the reasons why.
PS. If RFK, Jr., can get on the ballot, I will vote for him.
Bob,
Russia’s population may be 8 times that of Ukraine, but there’s a reason the Russian government still limits this war to a “special military operation,” recruits far from the centers of power, avoids talking about further mobilizations, and doesn’t use conscripts (see the first point), lies to its own population, etc. Russia’s advantages are constrained by domestic political reality and other factors.
To be perfectly frank, you’ve been stating the same thing for the last year, yet Russia has not won, is not close to winning, and is not poised to win anytime soon. The idea that Russia will “occupy” all of Ukraine is laughable in the current context.
No, it’s the opposite of that. Russia is returning to the status quo ante of its history following the temporary foray into Communism. There is no democracy. Christianity is a tool of the state. Culture longs for the advancements of the West but is still chained to irrelevant traditions. Russia is a revanchist state, not one that is looking to the future.
Andy, I’m afraid you have drunk the Kool Aid. The US and the West in general is unraveling before our eyes.
May I suggest you read Turchin’s latest book, “End Times”? Consider that since 1970 the percentage share of GDP earned by the middle and working classes in the US has declined. The working class share is down 50%. Significant numbers of working class people cannot form families. The birth rate is below replacement (for all classes), and the white population is actually declining. It is a minority in the under 15 yo cohort. We have an obesity epidemic and a drug epidemic, especially among the working class. The life expectancy is actually falling!! It has been for about a decade.
Falling birth rates, falling population numbers, falling life expectancy.
Do you not understand that this, the US, is a society headed for actual extinction?
May I add homeless camps and no go zones in every American city, and numerous Stalinist show trials? A submissive, captive press?
Russia, except for the birth rate problem every country outside Africa has, has none of our problems.
Re: @Bob Sykes critique of America:
We all acknowledge the negative trend but are so steeped in American exceptionalism we don’t believe that it end with American decline and downfall.
We witnessed a dotty President Biden celebrating Pride month with a giddy trans woman baring his breast implants at the White House and no one in the media was surprised or dismayed.
How can the rest of the world view this outside of the Netherlands?
How can Russia win? Easy call.
Given enough pain, cost, or time,
NATO will fold and go home.
How could anyone possibly imagine otherwise given recent history. This nation is not serious.
Bob,
The problems here in America don’t magically turn Russia into the heir of democracy and Christianity. Russia’s problems are much worse than America’s. Russia is in a ruinous war that it is unlikely to win. Take a look at all the metrics you mentioned and go look up the numbers for Russia. They aren’t pretty.
Grey,
Who cares? Presidents meet a lot of people for events like this and none of it matters.
I care.
And so should you.
We can do better than this senile woke puppet.
Andy- He is a troll. Every economic indicator is much worse in Russia than the US. As you know, it is a particularly poorly run country.
Steve
Troll.
Kiss my ass buddy.