Erosion of the Base

In an op-ed at The Hill Joe Concha remarks on the situation facing President Biden:

To be fair, President Trump’s poll numbers were similarly dismal at this stage of his presidency. But there are two major differences:

1) Trump’s polls could be largely explained by a special counsel’s investigation into possible Russia collusion and the 2016 election (which ultimately led nowhere).

2) Trump’s base, those who strongly supported him, was infinitely stronger and more reliable than Biden’s current base, which at just 15 percent strongly approving ain’t much of a base at all.

Meanwhile, a majority of Democrats don’t even want Joe Biden to run again in 2024, with just 48 percent supporting the idea. This is unheard of after just one year.

Two more big numbers to consider: Less than 7-in-10 Black voters (69 percent) support the 46th president. This is significant, because more than 9-in-10 Black voters (92 percent) voted for him in 2020.

So, we’re talking about an almost 25-point drop in a relatively short period of time. Inflation obviously is playing a huge role here, with the Wall Street Journal estimating that the higher price of goods is costing families an extra $276 per month, or an additional $3,300 or so annually. Many poor and middle-income families and single parents and individuals simply cannot afford that while living paycheck-to-paycheck.

It bears repeating: Joe Biden won the Democratic nomination for president because he wasn’t Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and won the general election because he wasn’t Donald Trump.

But his handlers thought he had a big mandate to be the next FDR, to radically change the country by expanding government in ways never seen before. Trillions in new spending have already been signed into law. Trillions more were proposed via Build Back Better, with the administration arguing that such spending would reduce inflation and the deficit, which makes zero sense.

In New York Magazine Eric Levitz elaborates somewhat on that:

Although Biden has lost ground with most every demographic group, he’s suffered especially steep losses with African American voters. In polling from NBC News, Biden’s approval rating among Black voters has fallen from 83 percent last April to 64 percent today. Quinnipiac University’s surveys show a similar trend, with Biden’s Black support dropping from 78 percent to 57 percent over the course of his first year in office.

Much of that erosion has come in just the last few months. A Pew Research survey released this week finds that Biden has bled seven percentage points of support among Black adults since September. Over that same period, the president lost just four points of support from whites, and virtually none from Asian or Hispanic voters.

Mr. Levitz goes on to document the reasons for the declne:

• Vaccine mandates
• Inflation
• Urban crime

Let’s not mince words. Black voters, particularly older black voters are the Democratic base. Not college professors. Not young voters. Older black voters vote. A defection by black voters could result in a debacle for Democrats in the mid-terms. Look at the 2020 margins. It wouldn’t just bring trouble in the “battleground states” (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, etc.) It could even put some “non-battleground states” like Maine, New Mexico, and Virginia in play.