Leanna Wen has her proposal for ending the COVID-19 pandemic in her latest Washington Post column. It consists of the following:
- Have vaccines available for young children
- Have oral, out-patient treatments for COVID-19
- Have free, readily available rapid tests
I want to focus on the last of those. Here’s what she says:
Imagine if every family was given twice-weekly, at-home tests to take before kids go to school and parents head to work. Imagine, too, if it becomes the norm for friends and family to take rapid tests before getting together for weddings, birthday parties, and even casual dinners and happy hours. When implemented together with vaccine requirements, regular testing can replace the need for masking and distancing in schools, offices and social settings.
Let’s do a little back-of-the-envelope calculation. Assuming a population of 330 million testing every person daily would mean 330 million X 365 = 120,450,000,000 tests per year. At $7/test that would be a cost of just under a $1 trillion/year or about 5% of GDP. I have no idea of how much in the way of materials would be required for that enormous number of tests.
It’s clear to me that 5% of GDP is far too much; even if the cost could be cut to $1/test it would still be a considerable sum. I honestly have no idea of the practicality of that. Add increased waste disposal on top of that.
I’m also a little curious as to how she thinks we’ll convince illegal immigrants and people wanted for various crimes to participate in all of this testing. Said another way could the participation rate of such a program ever become high enough to be effective?
She keeps saying imagine. I imagine people using them in a more focused way, only when they have a real concern they might be infected. Maybe before big family gatherings. Otherwise I think just having oral meds is good enough and would not wait for young kids.
Steve
Could be. Deregulating the banks so they could do whatever they wanted in the 2000s should also be considered.
Steve
That deregulation did result in considerable disruption and misallocation of investment but the wage and price controls killed whole industries.
“Said another way could the participation rate of such a program ever become high enough to be effective?”
No. Just look around. Ms Wen appears to have a fondness for pissing into the wind. We started with two weeks to bend the curve. Public policy has achieved precious little as various nostrums have been implemented or proposed. Over promises, failure to look at costs as well as benefits, abuse of authority have all resulted in a weary public. As I always note, you go to NYC, Wash DC, probably Chicago and LA and you have people afraid of their shadows. Here in the SE they wonder what the hell you are talking about.
South Carolina isn’t rushing to build new cemeteries.
Again, demand presupposes supply, and Ms. Wen assumes that a demand for test kits will magically produce test kits. (I have no doubt that she “believes in science”.)
As you noted, disposal of medical waste is never addressed. (I am familiar with the topic.)