At The Hill Kristin Tate makes an interesting observation:
What developed this year is a cascade of residents leaving large cities in blue states. Among the biggest losers this year, in terms of total population loss, were New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago and the District of Columbia. New York lost at least 300,000 residents this year. San Francisco saw 90,000 postal changes of address out of the city, while its median apartment rent took a nosedive of 20 percent in 2020. Los Angeles recorded more than 25,000 moves out of the city, while Chicago logged over 20,000. Even the District of Columbia lost 15,000 residents. Other cities that had sustained growth in the last decade also face severe drops in interest.
Residents who fled large cities in blue states overwhelmingly relocated to red-state cities, mostly in the Sun Belt or the West outside of California. Phoenix, already booming before the coronavirus, retained its spot as the fastest growing city in the country; its metro population now displaces Boston. The other overall winners in the demographic game this year are Nashville, where home prices continue to surge while real estate inventory is down 40 percent; Las Vegas, which tempted Bay Area techies to follow the Raiders to Sin City; Charlotte, which now has a larger population than San Francisco; and the greater Charleston area, which is likely the home of Boeing’s next expansion and has benefitted from manufacturing jobs moving south.
Chicago has been declining in population for years. This year will merely put an exclamation point behind the city’s decline. As I have been say for years, I think that people will be appalled at the results of the 2020 decennial census. For the first time California will lose seats in the reapportionment, New York will probably lose two seats, and Illinois will probably lose another seat while Texas and Florida will gain seats. Following the Supreme Court’s recent decision, those are now done deals.
I’m not sure she isn’t getting ahead of herself. I’ll be convinced it’s the end of the boom in big cities if Dallas, Houston, Jacksonville, Miami, and Seattle lose population. Otherwise it’s a just continuation of the population moving to where the jobs are.
Update
A Chicago Tribune editorial underscores that last point:
We’ve been chronicling the Illinois Exodus for years as residents and employers depart for other states with stronger economies, lower tax burdens and better-managed governments. It’s gotten very easy for people to say goodbye to Illinois, its tax-and-spend politicians and fiscal dysfunction. Illinois needs to retain and attract those workers to generate enough tax revenue to begin to slow its drain-circling. To do that, Gov. J.B. Pritzker and the General Assembly need to make Illinois more hospitable to businesses. More like Texas.
Texas added more than five times as many jobs as Illinois last year. The Lone Star State’s welcoming approach to economic growth works. Illinois’ slow growth/big government approach doesn’t.
States that make it easier for employers to grow and hire will reap the benefits. States that pound employers with heavy tax and regulatory burdens will scare them off. It’s not rocket science.
I’m convinced that Illinois politicians know what needs to be done. They just don’t know how they’ll hold onto their jobs and their own shady fortunes if they do what needs to be done.
