- I think that Joe Biden has been elected president.
- Absent some substantial evidence of wrongdoing, I don’t think the Trump campaign’s lawsuits to stop the counting will prevail.
- It’s pretty obvious that the Democrats will hold the House albeit with a smaller majority.
- I have no idea what will happen with the Senate. We may not really know for months due to Georgia’s situation.
Just about everything is progressing much as I said it would. I don’t like purely partisan control of government. In a country as closely divided as ours it’s a formula for mounting discontent. I’ve already said what I think Joe Biden is likely to do and he’s already doing it.
A major question is what will happen during the lame duck session? I’ll be digging around for that and may post on it later.
In my view it’s almost the ideal outcome given the inputs – Trump gone, divided government, no one has a mandate.
We can keep our fingers crossed. As I pointed out in the comments in another post, like every other president, Biden will claim a mandate. In addition his history strongly suggests that his version of centrism means moving to the center of the Democratic Party which will move ever farther to the left.
“In my view it’s almost the ideal outcome given the inputs….â€
It’s amazing the comforting feelings donning rose-colored glasses can give to some people.
“It’s amazing the comforting feelings donning rose-colored glasses can give to some people.”
Nope, it’s analyzing the outcome in terms of my political preferences. Keep in mind I’m saying this is the ideal (for me) given the inputs which was a contest between Trump and Biden. Biden was not my first choice and if the Democrats had nominated Sanders instead my opinion would be quite different (and I would have voted for Jorgensen).
“Biden will claim a mandate.”
And Trump will claim the election was stolen. Talk is cheap. Biden’s platform, which was carefully constructed to appease various interests, was mostly aspirational even in the case of a Democratic wave – now it might as well go straight to the circular file.
I think you are overestimating the odds of divided government, Andy.
Georgia is clearly purple; and with the top line results; the odds the Democrats will win 1 of the 2 runoffs is no less then 40% chance.
They also have the chance to get Murkowski or Romney to switch parties; I give that a 10% chance in the next 2 years.
All told I think Democrats getting unified control of the government is 50% or more sometime in the next 2 years.
@CuriousOnlooker, the candidate that got the most votes in Georgia this election was the Republican candidate for Senate, Perdue. He probably got some Biden voters to support him. Here are the totals right now for Georgia:
Biden: 2,461,455
Trump: 2,454, 207
Perdue (R): 2,455,146
Ossoff (D): 2,362,125
Aggregate of second seat:
Republicans: 2,419,017
Democrats: 2,366,245
Agree with PD. Dont see the Dems getting that Georgia seat. Also agree that saying you have a mandate is not the same as governing that way. The Senate stays in GOP hands and very little legislation gets passed.
Steve
Well in his own words Biden claims mandates on climate control and
systemic racism, (which by extension is presumed to exist). (As is white supremacy)
How do these evils get repaired through legislation?
Taxes and quotas. (Or reparations).
Not my platform, but as Dave said, good policy is not necessarily a straight line. They may have to sink the ship before they can get it on an even keel.
There are 2 seats; Democrats only need 1. Democrats will spend a lot, and I mean a lot of money at the Georgia races.
Don’t forget Biden, Obama, etc will be campaigning to turnout their voters as well. While Republicans won’t have anyone as high wattage.
Looking at the numbers PD gave; Democrats just need to convince those who voted only Biden while skipping the rest of ballot to vote for the D on the runoff ballot (maybe they are first time voters). Notice none of the Republican candidates got more votes then Biden.
Also, I believe the 2nd Republican candidate Loeffler is a relatively weak incumbent. Was not an uproar raised about her finances back in March?
I did give Democrats 40% chance of taking 1 of 2 seats. Not the favorites; but better then say Nate Silver gave Trump of winning in 2016.
The hard part will be getting people to vote in a special election. Turnouts in special elections are notoriously low.
Georgia’s will be a different case, given the stakes.
The advertising din in state will be grating as all hell.