It’s past my bedtime so I’m going to bed. It looks like the presidential election won’t be decided until the wee hours of the morning if then. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if when I rise in the morning (at 5:00am) we still don’t know who’s been elected president.
The map above shows the results as of 10:30pm or thereabouts. If all of the states that are presently leaning to Trump go to Trump and all of those presently leaning to Clinton go to Clinton, Trump wins. I still think that Hillary Clinton will eke out a victory but as of this writing it looks like her margin of victory will be much, much narrower than many had predicted.
There are some things we already know for sure. It won’t be a landslide for either candidate. Florida will conduct a recount. Under state law that’s mandatory for 3 point elections. Virginia was significantly closer than had been assumed.
Assuming we actually have tentative results tomorrow, I’ll write a post on the lessons we’ve learned this cycle. There have been a number of them.
First, let me acknowledge that I was one of those who did not think Trump could win. But the trends at work were easily identified. I, for one, underestimated the amplitude.
But too bad you went to bed early, Dave. One of the lessons as played out in the upper Midwest is the rejection by the Average Joe of the San Francisco/New York elite, and of stagnant incomes that accompany economic elitism. There is more than Silicon Valley and currency trading. Tipping point. Second, despite steve telling us for two years that Obamacare is just fine it’s not, and the latest round of failure was a tipping point right in front of the election. Health care scares people.
It wasn’t Comey, as I’m sure we will hear in the post mortem.
Not to too my horn, but my prediction in the comments standup pretty well. http://theglitteringeye.com/make-your-predictions-here/#comment-682035 . Got the upper Midwest except for Minnesota. And the south was less Republican then the past.
My initial thoughts is new divisions have sprung to the fore, but they are on aspects of trade, economic and foreign policy that maybe are more tractable then social ones. My read of American history is that the parties have traded positions on trade and foreign policy without tearing the country apart. It depends if Trump has the temper and judgement to be president, on that score I’m doubtful…
I admit it, I was skeptical, especially when the early vote totals started coming in from Florida’s urban centers. But Trump won, Big League!
Incidentally, I’m being told that Orange County had a huge turnout, but I kept driving by polling places today, and none of them had the lines that had been in evidence four years ago, and everyone that I know that did early voting reported short- to no-wait-times.
Incidentally, in very black Pine Hills, I only saw two yard signs for President this year: one for Hillary, and one for Trump. Hillary did not excite black voters, not even a little bit. Looks like the brothers didn’t want to be nagged by her for four years either. But at the polling stations I drove by, Trump signs outnumbers Hillary signs by 60 or 80 to 1. That means nothing, really, but it was odd. (If campaign signs really meant anything, then Rick Singh didn’t just get re-elected as Orange County Property Appraiser, he’s now also God Emperor of this and any other Universe you care to imagine.)
Ah, well. It’s been exquisite watching people have meltdowns tonight on TV and online. Absolutely exquisite. As I said, the most entertaining reason to vote for Trump was because he pissed off all the right people – and those people all got schlonged tonight. I was drinking Maker’s Mark straight out of the bottle earlier. I thought I was going to get toasted, but decided to stop at some point along the line.
…
PD, how the heck did you find a comment of mine from 2011 calling the Trump victory in 2016? If I mentioned any winning lottery numbers, let me know, and I’ll split the proceeds with you. Please?
Laughing my ass off as the New York Times suddenly discovers that the Presidency has become insanely powerful and unchecked under President Obama! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Guess what, assholes, the worm has turned!
It’s also fun that the ruling class looks set to throw a financial riot tomorrow. Man, the post-election hi-jinx might be better than the pre-election hi-jinx! And given that the press in this country have completely ruined themselves by colluding with one party, that’s saying something.
I’d better try to get some sleep now. Possibly a long day tomorrow. I’m going to have to work very hard at not gloating for the next week or so. In real life, I mean. Online? “I’m a mushroom cloud layin’ mother fucker! I’m Superfly T.N.T., I’m the Guns of the Navarone!” of gloating. I think I may need to find someone named Marvin and shoot him in the face….
Thank God.
God bless America.
Now drain the swamp.
Now drain the swamp.
We should nuke the site from orbit – just to be sure.
I told you so. Think the after vote analysis will show big white voter turnout and low turnout among young people and minorities.
Steve
Clinton and her immense carefully crafted campaign machine forgot what Burns had to say: “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men gang aft agley.â€