As most of us predicted in anticipation of the meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin in Anchorage last week little was accomplished but the president, as they say, tried to put the best face on it.
Today on the “talking heads” programs many of the media and political (Democratic) pundits took President Trump to task for not immediately imposing additional sanctions on Russia (as he said he would). On Face the Nation Colorado Rep. Jason Crow, after castigating the president for having produced a “historic embarrassment” for meeting with Putin at all made a useful observation to the effect that Mr. Putin only cares about three things: economic pressure, diplomatic isolation, and military defeat.
I think that provides a handy framework for considering the options in dealing with the situation. Of those I think that military defeat is the most easily dispensed with. Some minor saber-rattling on the part of the French aside, I don’t believe that any European country has expressed an interest in joining with Ukraine against the Russians. Is there any prospect for the U. S. entering into combat directly? I don’t see it.
That leaves economic pressure and diplomatic isolation. Are there any direct sanctions left to be applied against Russia? I don’t know of many.
I have no opposition to imposing indirect sanctions against countries continuing to buy oil from the Russians. That would include China, India, and Turkey, just to name some of Russia’s notable customers. The only way that could prove effective is if those countries see trade with the U. S. as more valuable to them than buying Russian oil. Do they?
To my eye we’ve been more successful at isolating ourselves on the world stage with our diplomatic postures than we have at making Russia into an “international pariah”. To my knowledge they’re active participants in more international organizations representing more of the world’s people than we are. NATO isolating itself is not synonymous with turning Russia into an international pariah.
So far as diplomacy is concerned there’s a century-old quip (attributed without evidence to Will Rogers) that diplomacy is the art of saying “nice doggie” while you look around for a rock. We appear to be stuck in the “nice doggie” state.
Lithuania’s President is saber rattling. First American Volunteer Group, Abraham Lincoln Brigade in the offing? The usual snark and bark seems more likely until it becomes the next critters problem.
The US, itself, buys oil from Russia in the form of refined diesel. We also buy fuel rods from Russia for our nuclear reactors. And, of course, most of the oil India buys from Russia is sold to Europe.
Even if those indirect Russian oil sales to the US and EU weren’t happening, the idea of punishing India for its trade with Russia is utter insanity. The neocons in Washington have already succeeded in creating an alliance between Russia and China (Pace, Nixon and Kissinger.). Now they want to drive India into that alliance, too. Wasn’t some part of the US government trying to setup AUKUS or something that would include India as an ally of the US against China?
Just how many countries do the neocons propose to add the Russia’s allies?
That’s been banned since 2022. What we do buy is from third parties, particularly India.
I think the situation has not changed much in the past year.
Objectively the Russians are on their way to attritting the Ukrainian army in the next year or two. So Russians have no incentive to lower their demands. To get anything from the Russians require the Ukrainians to demonstrate they can drag out the costs for the Russians to much higher then the Russian government has projected.
OTOH; the Ukrainians are in no mood to concede…..
But it’s a process. The Korean War negotiations took over a year — and in the end it was mostly a deal between the US and China; both Koreas didn’t want to sign the armistice. Feels like we just started serious negotiations.
Just let him have the Sudetenland. He seems nice, someone that can be dealt with.
I look forward to your plan for ending the war by a date certain.
Why a date certain? Because the longer the war goes on the lower the likelihood of a favorable outcome for Ukraine and the fewer Ukrainians there will be to keep the fight going.
That’s not a defense of Putin. It’s not saying that the Russians are good guys or that the Russian cause is just. It’s merely an acknowledgement of reality.
Dave Schuler: It’s merely an acknowledgement of reality.
The “reality” was that Ukraine would fold after a week. The problem hasn’t been Ukrainian will or courage. Any peace treaty with Putin is worth about as much as the Munich Agreement.