At the American Conservative Daniel L. Davis takes note of an exchange between Gen. John Nicholson and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Read the exchange, quoted in the linked piece, but here is how Mr. Davis summarizes it:
The senator asked and the general confirmed that in order to win, the U.S. had to “destroy†al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and have the Afghan government be “on a trajectory†toward a system of rule of law. Even if we do destroy al-Qaeda, ISIS, and any other terrorist groups that arise in the region, the Afghan government is not headed toward effective governance. In other words, this exchange lays the groundwork for the U.S. military to, literally, be made the Armed Forces of the Afghan state forever.
The Trump Administration is on the way to becoming the third consecutive presidential administration to misunderstand an old engineering wisecrack: “Don’t force it. Use a bigger hammer!” That is intended as sarcasm not as prescriptive.
We cannot achieve at least one of the objectives laid out by Gen. Nicholson—a competent, self-sufficient Afghan government—at any time in the foreseeable future regardless of the amount of force applied. We can’t even accomplish that here.
I’d love to see a briefing given to presidents to understand how they are persuaded to continue in Afghanistan. It’s become the great white whale. Why?
Speaking of wisecracks at the expense of engineers. They are also accused of waltzing in and proceeding to “just start turning all the knobs.” For those who are not engineers or familiar with the engineers psyche, there are two guiding, uh, principles: 1) I can fix anything and 2) “it may not be working as designed, but the damned thing is working isn’t it?”
They are minimizing personal political downside risk. They haven’t paid a political price for wasting time, lives, and resources in Afghanistan but are convinced they would be blamed if another mass terrorist attack emanated from there.
That may be, but is surprisingly more cynical than I’m used to seeing from you. (More like something I would say). It seems an ineffective approach. There are a number of anti-terrorism actions that would yield better results. And further, the last character we had in the White House made nice with the biggest sponsor of terror in the Middle East while they diligently work away at The Bomb. Then again, politics; if Iran bombed Israel today I’m sure CNN would have Chuck Schumer on to explain how Trump should be impeached for gross negligence……
Gen. Johnson is playing fast and loose with terminology. What we’re doing in Afghanistan has been and continues to be counter-insurgency not counter-terrorism. Counter-insurgency in Afghanistan is and always has been doomed to failure for reasons including the country’s poverty, the nature of the opposition, the country’s size, its culture, and our lack of sitzfleisch.
Counter-terrorism could work but it, too, would require a commitment to a permanent garrison of American troops in Afghanistan. As I’ve been saying for 15 years, I think Americans would tolerate that as long as the operational tempo and, consequently, the casualty rate was relatively low. But that isn’t what three administrations have been promoting. I don’t believe they know how to sell that kind of commitment.
Off-Topic, but related:
Trump Changes Gear: Strategic Syria policy now lies with Tillerson and Lavrov by Alastair Crooke, 12 May 2017
If fully or partially correct, it could augur a full or potential solution to other foreign policy issues.
I for one would welcome a transition to negotiating peace from American hegemony as a national goal.
However, IMO while necessary it’s not sufficient. We’ve also got to see to American security and that will require more than persistent ceasefires.
” the last character we had in the White House made nice with the biggest sponsor of terror in the Middle East ”
The biggest world wide sponsor of terror is Saudi Arabia, and if you only look at terror her in the US, they really top the list. Wonder where your boy is making his first stop on his tour? (I strongly suspect the claims about Iran and Middle East terror come from Saudi and Israeli sources and should be discounted.)
Dave- Mostly agree with you here. We still have no idea how to turn Afghanistan into Sweden.
Steve