In Nouriel Roubini’s latest Project Syndicate piece he opens with a description of the “golden age” (1945-1985), and then lists the “megathreats” we face:
- great power war
- nuclear war
- pandemic
- deglobalization
- trade war
- catastrophic climate change
- public and private debt
- artificial intelligence resulting in mass technological unemployment
- deepening inequality and malaise
lamenting:
How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust.
In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix.
Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse.
I wish it were only “heads stuck in the sand”. I think a lot is due to gross errors on the part of those with the power to make decisions. Politicians. Corporate CEOs. Our extremely self-centered professional class. We didn’t deindustrialize overnight and, as I have been pointing out for decades, reindustrializing will be a lot less fun than being the world’s consumer of last resort has been.
As the saying goes, prediction is hard, especially about the future.
I suppose that’s a decent starting list of possibilities, but I don’t think anyone can do more than guess how serious any of them will turn out to be.
Yes, the sky is always falling and if you want to attract readers, that’s what you write about.
It’s interesting that human beings always plan less than they should but ramp up when the shit really hits the fan.
I’m not too worried.
For the working class, the Golden Age was 1945 to 1965. For the 1%, the Golden Age is 1945 to now.
We are in a full-blown trade war right now, and since almost all central banks are raising rates, we can expect a debt crisis very soon, by Spring, at least.
The big problem is the over the top aggression by the US Ruling Caste against Russia, China, and Iran. If our Ruling Caste does not back down, a two front major power war is inevitable. Of course, such a war would likely go nuclear fairly quickly. Unfortunately, the US is still escalating in both Eastern Europe and Eastern Asia.
Last I looked China and India were still having growth. Could change.
Steve
Since the title is doomed just a follow up note on Monkeypox since how it was handled was criticized a lot. Its effectively gone. As of November 3rd we had 2 total deaths.
Steve
Sort of a play on words Dr. Roubini being Dr. Doom and all.