The editors of the Washington Post point out that furnishing additional weapons to Ukraine and applying sanctions against China, India, and Brazil as long as their purchases of Russian oil and gas finance Russia’s war against Ukraine aren’t “done deals”:
President Donald Trump on Monday finally announced he would send more weapons to Ukraine, a sign of renewed attention to and appreciation of the besieged country’s position. He also issued a risky ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning he would apply punishing “secondary sanctions” on countries that continue to trade with Russia if the Kremlin fails to reach a peace deal with Ukraine within 50 days. If the sanctions kick in, they could hurt Russia — but also the whole world economy.
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For the sake of Ukraine specifically and American credibility generally, Trump cannot back down.
Trump is clearly frustrated with Putin. On Monday, he described having “pleasant” and “lovely” telephone conversations with the Russian president, only to find out soon after that Russian missiles and drones were pulverizing yet another Ukrainian city. Whether that frustration manifests in strong, sustained U.S. support for Ukraine, in weapons shipments and other measures, will determine how this conflict finally ends.
There are plenty of reasons to be doubtful. President Trump is famously mercurial. What he says he’ll do or support today may or may not be what he’ll do or support tomorrow.
Additionally, sending additional weapons to Ukraine is a more complex process than you might think. What’s being discussed is our NATO allies sending additional weapons to Ukraine and then paying us to replace them. That is like herding cats. We don’t know what will actually be accomplished.
We also do not know just how many replacement weapons systems will be needed, how many of those sent to Ukraine have been destroyed, or how many we can produce. 740 Patriot are scheduled to be produced through the end of 2025 and that can’t be expanded ad libitum.
I’m still waiting for someone to enunciate a clear plan on how Ukrainian President Zelensky’s 10 point plan can be accomplished or whether he’ll accept anything short of that. The editors mention President Putin’s maximalist demands without any reference to President Zelensky’s. Is U. S. support conditional on both sides accepting something less than their maximalist demands and how will that be accomplished?
As to the secondary sanctions, as I said yesterday, I’ll believe them when I see them. Sanctions to be applied in 50 days remind me of the story of the Caliph, the Grand Vizier, and the donkey.
O’Hanlon and Schake pointed out with India in particular that we need their support in responding to China. That while putting a large tariff on them might be beneficial in the short run with the Ukraine war it might hurt us down the line. Trump just says stuff apparently thinking about how it would help him now and doesnt appear to be concerned about long term effects or collateral damage.
Steve
Russia will win this war on the ground without negotiations. They will then impose whatever conditions they want.
If Trump manages to drive India into an alliance with Russia and China, that would certainly be a world historic event, and cement his place in history.