I found this editorial from the Wall Street Journal if not a concurrence with my recent post at least highly complementary with it:
Financial industry news site Investment Executive reported this week that the largest U.S. investment banks recorded a 17% aggregate increase in trading revenues in the second quarter compared to the same period last year. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported more than a 20% increase in equities trading revenue. Talk about springtime for bankers.
Mr. Trump’s semi-tariff reprieve with Japan seems to have prompted investors to double down on the TACO trade—Trump Always Chickens Out—and sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new highs. The price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is close to record levels, which suggests that valuations may be stretched.
Look no further than so-called meme stocks, which are experiencing a mania a la early 2021. As then, retail traders are making leveraged bets on stocks that have large short-interest plays such as Kohl’s, GoPro, Opendoor and Krispy Kreme. Hedge funds are riding the stock-market roller coaster to riches, and day traders want in on the fun.
but
None of this signals that there’s a shortage of liquidity, or that current interest rates are restricting credit conditions. Yet back on Main Street, businesses are struggling to borrow. Bank construction loans and housing starts have declined. Job growth has stalled in recent months in most industries outside of healthcare and government.
In other words the Magnificent Seven stocks are doing just fine even as they engage in mass layoffs and big investment banks are prospering but small companies and workers not so much.
Dont worry. Trump will fire Powell and dictate policy. Note that Bessent, Warsh and others are pushing to have the Fed and Treasury work together, under the guidance of POTUS. He is planning to cut rates by 3%. That will make everything better.
Steve
As I’ve said before I don’t think that Powell should be fired. I think he should serve out his present term and should be replaced at that time.
I also think the BoG from 2000-2023 should explain why their actions differed so greatly from what the Taylor Rule would have suggested.
steve:
The Fed and Treasury work together by law. That’s the way the system works.
Not working to carry out policy as determined by POTUS.
Steve
I’m afraid that’s a distinction without a difference. The Congress appropriates. The Treasury (which does “carry out policy as determined by POTUS”) provides the funds. The Fed under present law must extend credit.