I was struck by this passage at RealClearPolicy from Charles Freeman of the U. S. Chamber of Commerce and Daniel Rosen of the Rhodium Group about the cost of decoupling the U. S. economy from China:
In the semiconductor industry, losing access to Chinese customers would cause $54 billion to $124 billion in lost U.S. output, risking more than 100,000 U.S. jobs, $12 billion in R&D spending, and $13 billion in capital spending. For the U.S. chemicals industry, the potential cost of the imposition of tariffs alone ranges from $10.2 billion in U.S. payroll and output reductions and 26,000 lost jobs, to $38 billion in output losses and nearly 100,000 lost jobs.
I couldn’t tell whether they were arguing for or against. High as they appear those are trivial numbers. Total U. S. output was around $21 trillion in 2019 and total capital spending around $2 trillion. Around 140 million people were employed in 2019. If they’re trying to scare me they aren’t doing a very good job.
That’s actually the entire source of our problem. The benefits of trade with China are completely asymmetrical in China’s favor. The benefits have nearly all been captured by large corporations while the costs have mostly been borne by ordinary people. And we haven’t even touched on the how much COVID-19 has cost the United States.
“The benefits have nearly all been captured by large corporations while the costs have mostly been borne by ordinary people.”
The benefits have nearly all been captured by large corporations and politicians while the costs have mostly been borne by ordinary people and small businesses.
There. Better. Although…….
“The benefits of trade with China are completely asymmetrical in China’s favor.”
Eric Swalwell might have a different perspective.
My God.
Fang Fang. Just the name alone makes me lose my balance.