At The RAND blog Brian Michael Jenkins points out just how ineffective President Trump’s “travel ban” is likely to be in preventing terrorist attacks in the United States:
Since 9/11, terrorists inspired by jihadist ideology have carried out 16 attacks in the United States: Seven involved fatalities and eight of them injured people. In the remaining case — the would-be Times Square bomber in 2010 — the device failed to detonate.
This is a low number, especially when considering it encompasses a period of more than 15 years. In the 1970s, the U.S. experienced 50 to 60 terrorist bombings a year, although most of the attacks were not intended to kill but were meant to be symbolic violence.
Some analyses might add a few more attacks to this list. The differences reflect judgments about motives, which can be murky.
In addition to the attacks, there have been almost 80 jihadist terrorist plots over these same 15 years. Working together, FBI agents and local police have been able to uncover and disrupt more than 80 percent of these — a remarkable record. In many cases, investigations began with tips from the Muslim community.
A total of 147 people in the United States participated in attacks or plotted others that were thwarted by the authorities. Again, this is a low number — an average of fewer than nine people a year since 9/11.
Most of these plots and attacks — 105 out of 147 — were planned by U.S. citizens. Another 20 of the plotters were legal permanent residents, most of whom arrived in the United States as children. In other words, 85 percent of the terrorists lived in the U.S a long time before carrying out an attack — they radicalized within the nation’s borders.
That’s why I think the preferred policy should be treating terrorist attacks within the United States as mental disorder with early intervention and outside the United States as war, keeping in mind that I believe that the way the United States has pursued war for at least the last half century has been unjust.
Yep, Trump’s ban will probably increase the chance for islamic-based terrorist attacks both here in the US and overseas. It probably also increases the chances of domestic terrorism from the reactionaries most opposed to him as well as counter-reactionaries from supporters.
I think initially this country will become more unstable, likely to be increasingly vulnerable to vindictive attacks (both within and outside our borders) with the introduction of Trump’s harsher policies. It’s similar to a speeding car heading for a brick wall under one driver, after which another driver stomps hard on the brakes. Severe whiplash is likely to be the result. The undetermined question is if wearing a neck brace is a healthier outcome than hitting that wall.