President Biden is receiving criticism from many quarters over the situation in Afghanistan.
David Ignatius in the Washington Post
For President Biden, who had hoped for an orderly U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the chaos in Kabul carries echoes of the fall of Saigon in 1975 — precisely the image he wanted to avoid. And the Taliban’s drive for military victory — ignoring pledges to negotiate a transition of power — will raise questions about whether its promises to prevent al-Qaeda from rebuilding safe havens in Afghanistan can be trusted.
and
The Taliban will have difficulty swallowing Afghanistan, for all its success on the battlefield. Afghanistan has become an increasingly urban and modern society since the U.S. invasion in 2001. The Taliban’s military forces number only about 80,000, in a country of about 39 million. For millions of Afghan women, who have been attending schools and universities the past two decades and sharing in a freer country, the prospect of a Taliban return to power is especially bleak.
The beneficiaries of the American occupation will undoubtedly be those who suffer most under a return to Taliban rule. That’s just stating the obvious.
Frederick W. Kagan in the New York Times
A disastrous Taliban takeover wasn’t inevitable. President Biden said his hands were tied to a withdrawal given the awful peace deal negotiated between the Trump administration and the Taliban. But there was still a way to pull out American troops while giving our Afghan partners a better chance to hold the gains we made with them over the last two decades.
Mr. Biden chose otherwise. The way he announced the drawdown and eventual departure of American troops — at the start of the fighting season, on a rapid timeline and sans adequate coordination with the Afghan government — has in part gotten us into the current situation.
Reasonable people can disagree about the wisdom of keeping American military forces in Afghanistan indefinitely, even at very low numbers. I and others have argued that the investment, including the risk to American personnel, is worth it to prevent militant groups from once again overrunning the country.
Mr. Biden believes that further expending U.S. resources in Afghanistan is “a recipe for being there indefinitely.†He rightly notes that President Trump had left him few good options by making a terrible deal with the Taliban. That’s a fine argument, but it explains neither the hastiness nor the consequences we are now observing: the Taliban overrunning swathes of the country, closing in on Kabul, pushing the Afghan security forces and government to the brink of collapse and prompting the Pentagon to prepare for a possible evacuation of the U.S. embassy.
The Editors of the Wall Street Journal
Former Defense Secretary Bob Gates famously wrote that President Biden has been on the wrong side of every major foreign-policy issue in his long career. The world is getting another example as Mr. Biden’s hell-bent, ill-planned withdrawal from Afghanistan is turning into a strategic defeat and moral debacle.
The Taliban march to Kabul continues with the fall of more provincial capitals each day. The last count was 12 capitals, including Ghazni City on the road between the major cities of Kandahar and Kabul. Reinforcing Afghan forces defending Kandahar will become harder if the road is blocked.
The Afghan government is trying to mount a counterattack, and President Ashraf Ghani has sacked another army chief. But the Taliban now controls at least eight entire provinces, according to the Long War Journal, and its reach includes areas in the north that the Taliban didn’t control when it ruled the country before 9/11. The city of Herat also fell Thursday, and Kandahar could be next.
and
The White House has failed to understand what’s happening, with leaks saying the Administration is surprised by the Taliban assault. Surprised? The military warned Mr. Biden and so did U.S. intelligence. The Taliban began this offensive on May 1, two weeks after Mr. Biden announced his withdrawal, aiming for the symbolic date of Sept. 11.
For the umpteenth time, back in 2001, recognizing that some forceful response was politically necessary after the terrorist attacks on 9/11, I advocated the most ferocious punitive raid in history, harsh and destructive enough to discourage any country entertaining the prospect of playing host to terrorists. I argued against “boots on the ground” and occupying the country because I envisioned this day.
All of those criticizing the withdrawal clearly want a permanent occupation of Afghanistan since that’s the only strategy that would have prevented what will happen. Some are explicit in their aims; for all they are at least implicit. All point to consequences for withdrawing. None point to the consequences of a permanent occupation of an otherwise strategically meaningless landlocked country in the middle of Asia. Those would be extremely dire.
I voted for Barack Obama in 2008, hoping that he would have the sense and the courage to withdraw our troops from Afghanistan. He didn’t. I presume he was persuaded otherwise by the general staff and political advisors. I don’t know what has given Joe Biden the spine to go through with it. I don’t agree with those who see him as a doddering ancient, so demented he is not responsible for his own policies. In the unlikely event that he’s entertaining the notion of a second term, withdrawing from Afghanistan and the consequences of that withdrawal will undoubtedly be arguments wielded by his political opponents against him. That doesn’t mean it’s not the right thing to do under the circumstances.
Update
James Joyner has a roundup of reaction as well.
I hope he doesnt succumb to pressure return troops and wait for another president to take the blame. I do think he should have gotten our embassy people out sooner. I suspect the military leaders actually convinced him that the Afghan troops would hold out for a while against the Taliban but I think anyone who has followed Afghanistan or ever deployed to the Middle East knew they would fold quickly.
Steve
What did people really expect from Biden? He was the one, under Obama, who was responsible for the nitwit withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, leading to the rise of the ISIS problems. Biden ignored the China buildup of military bases in the South China Sea, presumably with the pay off being a billion pay out to his son’s equity firm. He was the one who did a video recorded quid pro quo, bullying Ukraine to fire a prosecutor looking into Burisma, his son’s meal ticket in that country. Even Gates, a former secretary of defense stated that Biden never made good foreign policy decisions.
So now we have a President Biden, undoing Trump’s conditional withdrawal from Afghanistan, replacing it with his own announced withdrawal in Sept., only to leave in the middle of night in August, abandoning all those who had helped the U.S. – equipment, airports, interpreters – creating a debacle that will have an enormous impact in the wake of this horrendous departure. Some now say China will be more empowered to take on Taiwan, seeing how spineless and disorganized the Biden Administration has been in the ME.
The fact that the MSM is forced to do some critical reporting about Biden demonstrates what a mess Biden is making overseas. Hopefully the media will someday feel compelled to honestly report and film the extent of our crisis on the southern border.
There was never any chance the Afghan government installed by US/NATO would survive. It is a totally artificial construct, a 19th Century colonial puppet regime, with no local support. The speed of its collapse is surprising. However, today’s Taliban leaders have been working hard to recruit their former enemies, and they have largely succeeded. The recruitment worked in large part because their enemies agree with the Taliban on most issues. Added to that is the hatred the average Afghan for foreign occupiers with a totally alien culture.
The Taliban are now a national, not tribal, movement.
People old enough will remember that the US helped finance and arm the Taliban in its fight against the Communist government then reigning in Kabul. The USSR supported that regime with troops on the ground. When they left, the Kabul government was functioning and had a military that kept the Taliban at bay. The Kabul government actually lasted three years after the Soviets left, and it only collapsed after the USSR collapsed and could no longer provide support. The Communists in Kabul actually outlasted the USSR by about one year.
People also forget (or choose not to remember) that the US/UK/France/Turkey supported both al-Qaida and ISIS in Syria as a means to topple Assad. No one attacked ISIS or its bases or its oil export business until the Russians showed up and blew the cover of the US and its allies.
Of course, later ISIS slipped its leash and tried for its own country along the Euphrates in both Syria and Iraq. They had the active support of most of the Sunni Arabs in the Valley, and they came close to success.
For 20 years, the US/NATO has inflicted wanton killing and wanton destruction on Afghans and their property for no purpose. One of Insty’s posters says Afghans will now slip into a new Dark Ages. That will be an improvement over the US/NATO occupation.
Had a re-elected President Trump gone through with the withdrawal one month later, the result would have been the same. At best, it would have occured slower. It should be obvious that the Afghan security forces were nowhere ready after 20 years.
Removing 20 years worth of equipment would take years, and dumping it into the sea was not an option. (The environmental impact would be bad, really bad.) Destroying it in-place would still leave useful material.
@Dave Schuler
The mission was accomplished in a few weeks, and we should have gotten out. It would have been nice to leave a small anti-terrorist force, but unless the US allowed Afghans to continue their taboos, customs, and laws, it would have eventually metastasized into nation-building.
I disagree with your assessment of President Biden. He is a senile & racist pedephile. Unfortunately, he will be remembered as the president who lost Afghanistan, but as is painfully apparent, there was nothing to lose.
@bob sykes
Good assessment, and I fully agree.
Times like this let you see where the buck stops. Too often, its been with that intern in the by the xerox machine.
That was always politically impossible. U. S. policy is an emergent phenomenon formed from the sometimes conflicting interests of Hamiltonians (businesses), Jacksonians (most of our military), and Wilsonians (optimistic idealists—do-gooders). Many of today’s Wilsonians are not simply progressive internationalists they are promoters of women’s rights. They would absolutely not have tolerated leaving Afghanistan’s “taboos and customs” intact.
The question you should ask yourself is what would President H. Clinton have done? I don’t believe she would have left Afghan women to their fates.
TastyBits:
If we were absolutely, positively committed to putting “boots on the ground” and removing the Taliban, the policy that I recommended as the least bad alternative was to put what some characterized as a “small, lethal force” with a mission of counter-terrorism in Afghanistan on a permanent basis. To do that we should have created a cordon sanitaire around an area which we completely disarmed, leaving the rest of Afghanistan alone as long as no terrorist camps were set up. I think that was always politically impossible. I suspect that’s the reason why no president has ever advertised our Afghanistan mission as permanent—they knew it wouldn’t sell.
Military occupation worked in Germany and Japan because the people accepted defeat, but in order to get them to that point, a lot of Germans and Japanese had to die. I doubt firebombing Dresden or Tokyo would fly today.
“Military occupation worked in Germany and Japan because the people accepted defeat, but in order to get them to that point, a lot of Germans and Japanese had to die. I doubt firebombing Dresden or Tokyo would fly today.”
Germany and Japan (and Korea) were cohesive societies. Afghanistan is the opposite. You can’t get a country to surrender when that country doesn’t exist as a coherent political community.
“You can’t get a country to surrender when that country doesn’t exist as a coherent political community.”
Just to emphasize this, who would actually represent the Taliban to surrender and could make it stick? No one.
“Had a re-elected President Trump gone through with the withdrawal one month later”
Never was going to happen. Trump was going to make sure it all happened after he left to avoid blame. Bush did the same. jan wants permanent occupation (in Iraq also) but I think most of us know it is a waste of American lives and money.
Steve
@steve
So, let me get this straight. If Trump had been re-elected, he would have postponed the withdrawal for 4 years? Maybe, he set the date and threw the election to blame Democrats. Were space aliens involved?
It is scary to think that you really believe the shit you throw at the wall.
I will go through this real slow for you. President Bush left a pile of shit for President Obama. President Bush thought the US should have stayed in Iraq, he should not have negotiated a withdrawal for the next President.
President Obama campaigned to get out of Iraq, and he allowed the agreement President Bush negotiated to stand. ISIS had nothing to do with the US. They were a Saudi problem, but President Obama decided to get the US involved in Syria. Furthermore, President Obama did not get out of Afghanistan, and instead, he decided to get more involved.
On Iraq, President Bush gets an F-, but President Obama gets an A+. If ISIS was due to the Iraq withdrawal, President Bush gets an F, and President Obama gets an N/A. On Syria, President Obama gets an F-.
On Afghanistan, President Bush gets an A+, but it quickly becomes an F-. Unfortunately, President Obama gets a D. President Trump gets a D-. President Biden gets an A++, and as to the execution, I do not see a slow motion collapse as any better.
Post-9/11, I mostly liked President Bush for his first term. In his second term, he initially abandoned Iraq and Afghanistan for Social Security reform, but when they turned into a pile of steaming dog shit, he sprayed Febreze to eliminate the odor. Before he left office, he tossed the can of Febreze, and President Obama inherited a stinky pile of dog shit.
Then and now, I dislike President Obama, but had he stayed out of Libya and Syria, I would mostly overlook my dislike. Had he stayed out of Libya and Syria and gotten out of Afghanistan, I would have tried to like him.
Then and now, I like President Trump. He mostly did not increase our foreign military action. He did get more involved with ISIS, but we did not invade Syria. He should have gotten out of Afghanistan three years ago, but while it would have been delayed, I am fairly certain the delay would not have been for four years.
If you have not determined my opinion of President Biden, I can elaborate. Even getting us out of Afghanistan does not alter my opinion, but I will defend his decision.
I think Biden is truly incompetent. (Over the hill, but not a dementia diagnosis. Just a doddering old incompetent.) However, I don’t see how the situation could have been made materially better, and the withdrawal was destined to be ugly no matter what or whom. This was just a first class mess. One can ascribe whatever motives or lack of execution they want to Biden, but at least he did it. So I, for one, am supportive. Most of the commentary is just political.
I feel sorry for the women. But I confess I’m more sorry for our people. I also am sorry about the people of the Congo. But what are we supposed to do about it?
I actually at this point believe Biden has done the right thing to swallow hard and accept defeat.
It is though, embarrassing, that the U.S. has now lost two foreign wars to enemies with no air power.
That will not go unnoticed by our friends and adversaries throughout the world.
George W. Bush should have taken a lesson from his father, specifically this: Kick ass and go home.
If people don’t believe the Chinese are emboldened vis a vis Taiwan, what are you thinking?
Yes, every effort should now be made to rescue those who put their necks on the line to support the U.S. , but many will die horrible deaths and that’s on our hubris.
” If Trump had been re-elected, he would have postponed the withdrawal for 4 years? ”
He talked about leaving for 4 years and did nothing until his last few months and even then left it up to Biden to take the blame. He could have left whenever he wanted earlier. Would he have really waited the full 4 years? Hard to say but I am betting he would keep delaying it until late in his term again to avoid the bad look and would not have been surprised if he left it for the next person.
“If you have not determined my opinion of President Biden, I can elaborate. ”
It has been clear and one of the more stupid ones I have seen on the internet, so that means you get an A for effort. (You keep leaving out the part where he eats babies. Cant believe you keep forgetting that part but I am sure you will remember some day. I will just keep reminding you.)
Steve
@steve
President Trump should have gotten out during his term, and it is a disgrace that he did not. It is a disgrace that President Biden will be tagged as the president who lost Afghanistan, and it is disgusting that people who supported a Trump withdrawal are among those.
As with President Obama and the Iraq withdrawal, I will defend President Biden and the Afghanistan withdrawal. It will not make a difference, but to me, it matters.
Regarding President Biden and babies, I guess you are trying to deflect, again. His unnatural predilection towards girls mostly 10 – 16 is so well documented that Youtube and Google cannot memory hole it.
In Biden’s own words. “Eating babies” is just a weak attempt to deflect. The whole thing has been horribly mismanaged, in reality and politically. But he did it. Plus 1.
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2021/08/15/devastatingly-bad-bidens-july-press-conference-about-withdrawing-from-afghanistan-just-absolutely-damning-watch/
I agree that getting out of Afghanistan was always going to have pot holes leading to the exit. However, how Biden has chosen to handle it the entire road out of town is caving. Instead of Biden attempting to turn over the airport and equipment to the Afghan army, he simply abandoned everything with a first-come-first-serve attitude – the Taliban taking advantage of such lack of planning. Furthermore, human assets are also being left behind – journalists, embassy staff, contractors, Afghans who helped the U.S. and now are left in place to be dealt with by Taliban aggressors. Now, the feckless Biden is sending more troops in as a rescue crew, a last minute effort to help turnaround what could become a human catastrophe in the wake of his mismanaged departure. There are also rumored to be bombers in the air to maybe bomb what was hurriedly left behind.
Consequently, unlike Tasty, I give Biden an F for his Afghanistan involvement. Obama earns a D for how he generally dealt with the ME. Trump gets an incomplete for Afghanistan and a B for his general actions and inactions in the ME.
For you guys this is just an occasional area of interest, mostly so you can bash Democrats and praise Republicans. Once you spend some time in the ME a lot fo us retain interests. You have friends you left behind in the military who went back again (and again). You hire ex-military since you have that common bond. So while our political leadership has been lacking, what I think you miss is that a lot fo this has come from our military. (Andy may have a different perspective.) Our military leadership exemplifies the military “can do” spirit. You pretty much just dont get to make flag grade but telling someone something cannot be done. I think out military leadership constantly presented plans showing how we could make the Afghan military functional and then they generated reports showing it was working. But, if you listened to the people working on the ground it was awfully clear it was failing.
How much of this was in response to political leaders only accepting positive reports? I dont know, but we have been through this before. It was called Viet Nam. A lot of military leadership will have read McMaster’s book and they know that they have an obligation to tell civilian leadership when something is not possible. I think we will have to wait not he books and all the after action analysis but I think that once again military leadership is going to take a big hit.
Steve
Afghan President Ghani has fled the county.
Choppers are seen landing @ the embassy.
Kabul has fallen to the Taliban.
The end.
Not the end. If Kabul fell to the Taliban was the end; for many in the US, that would be acceptable.
Since withdrawing from Afghanistan was considered during the Obama, Tump, and Biden years — that the Kabul government would fall was considered a likely possibility. And I believe in the last few years, most policy makers and the American public considered it a lamentable, but acceptable outcome.
What’s caused all the noise is that Kabul fell not years, or months, but before the official withdrawal date. Its fallen so fast that the US wasn’t able to evacuate all its diplomats (I believe some spouses and dependents of the diplomats as well). There’s a real risk of an Iranian-style hostage crisis if the Taliban want to pursue that.
The other question is what does the Taliban do? Are they a national movement or continue to be a Pashtun movement? If they are still a Pashtun movement, they will find it hard to control the country as Pashtuns are only a plurality of Afghanistan. In the 90’s, that led them to make a deal for foreign manpower (Al Queda). Hopefully the Taliban will do things differently this time.
Curious,
The lack of a plan BEFORE Afghanistan was taken over by the Taliban, along with ISIS on the fringes, is what is bedeviling this withdrawal, creating all kinds of chaos. Supposedly some 60,000 people fled to the airport to hopefully catch a flight out of this besieged area. However, only people with “bracelets†and paperwork in order were allowed to leave. Everyone else was told to hide and “shelter in place.†Just think how you would feel being given such instructions, and then left at the mercy of the invaders.
John Robb shares my concern about the evacuation.
The airport is a choke point — if the Taliban destroy the runways — it becomes a logistical nightmare to support the people at the airport (including the diplomats/troops already there, never-mind the civilians).
I hope Biden and his team are being hard headed about this — don’t end up with several thousand troops trying to fight their way out of Kabul into some make shift airbase.