As the total number of cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide continues to creep towards 3 million, little has changed over the last few days. Only South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan seem to have avoided major outbreaks of the disease. Singapore seems to be seeing a resurgence in the number of cases.
The curve may be bending in Italy. The peak in the number of new cases took place on March 21 and that seems to be holding although new cases continue to be accumulating. I can’t distinguish whether the measures the Italians have put in place are succeeding or the epidemic is just running its course there.
Here in the U. S. the health care system hasn’t been overwhelmed but I see few signs that we’re “bending the curve”, either. The New York metropolitan area still has about a third of all cases of COVID-19 diagnosed in the U. S. and about half of the deaths. There are some reports that pressures on ICUs in that area are decreasing. The situation seems to be worsening in the Washington, DC area.
The number of cases per million population in Florida, Texas, and California are 10% their number in New York State. Maybe those states are being protected by heat or sunshine. Population density would appear to be a more significant factor. Minnesota has a rather low prevalence and morbidity and the state is not known for heat or sunshine.
New York State announced based on serology tests 14% of people were infected and 22% of New York City.
The IFR is roughly 0.5%.
Given the numbers; I have to wonder if hers immunity effects are kicking in.
By the way, it is almost certain the number of infections is even higher.
They sampled people leaving a supermarket — so that leave out (1) children/minors (2) people that are at home with the illness or recovering from the virus.
If you factor in children, I would not be surprised if the percentage infected in New York is 35%.