Coronavirus News

CNN reports that the first death due to coronavirus outside China has occurred:

The coronavirus outbreak has killed at least 305 people and infected more than 14,300 globally, as it continues to spread beyond China. One person outside mainland China, a man in the Philippines, has died.

There’s a useful summary of what is known about the virus at the New England Journal of Medicine.

The disease is spreading exponentially. That means that in two months there won’t be 14,300 more cases but many times that.

Meanwhile at South China Morning Post Andy Xie complains that the outbreak illustrates a failure of China’s system:

China is effectively in a lockdown. From big cities to little villages, almost every community is under quarantine to a varying degree, or at least faces some travel restrictions. There is little information on how long this will last. One thing for sure is that the government is willing to keep the country in lockdown until the virus outbreak comes under control. A government mobilisation on this scale is unprecedented.
This shows the awesome power of the China model. With government power at the centre of everything, it can mould society in a way not possible in any other large or even mid-sized country. It has grass-roots party cells to implement quarantine policies in every urban compound or village. Going anywhere in the country feels like going through an international airport; someone may pop out suddenly to measure your temperature.
China’s political system allows it to put down everything else to focus on one thing. The economy can take a back seat. If the lockdown lasts for four weeks, which is an optimistic assumption, the economic loss could be around 2 per cent of the gross domestic product. If the crisis lasts longer, the cost escalates proportionately.
While overwhelming government powers are an advantage in handling a national crisis, they are not so effective at preventing one. Since the virus began to surface in early December, developments have unfolded like a sequel to the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome crisis, as if nothing had changed in 17 years. It shows that the China model is a blunt instrument good at doing obvious and big things, but not so effective with complex issues at micro levels.

In my view when China emerges from “lockdown” should not be determined solely by China. If the mortality rate of the Wuhan coronavirus begins to reach that of, say, the Spanish flu, which also emerged from China, there should be serious reconsideration of China’s role in the global system.