Connecting the Dots

Ruy Teixeira connects the dots between the San Francisco district attorney’s recall, the track records of other progressive states attorneys, and the Democrats’ situation going into the midterms:

When voters in San Francisco—San Francisco!—throw a progressive Democrat out of office for failing to provide public safety, you know Democrats have an urgent need to assure voters that they are in fact determined to crack down on crime and to dissociate the party from approaches that fail to do so.

This is a wave that has been building for some time. In the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder and the nationwide movement sparked by it, the climate for police reform was highly favorable. But Democrats blew the opportunity by allowing the party to be associated with unpopular movement slogans like “defund the police” that did not appear to take public safety concerns very seriously.

At the same time, Democrats became associated with a wave of progressive public prosecutors who seemed quite hesitant about keeping criminals off the street, even as a spike in violent crimes like murders and carjacking sweeps the nation. This was twinned to a climate of tolerance and non-prosecution for lesser crimes that degraded the quality of life in many cities under Democratic control. San Francisco became practically a poster child for the latter problem under Chesa Boudin’s “leadership”.

and

The answer seems clear to me. It’s time for Democrats to adopt former UK prime minister Tony Blair’s felicitous slogan: “Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime”. Conservative outlets like Fox News may exaggerate but voters really do want law and order—done fairly and humanely, but law and order just the same. Democrats still seem reluctant to highlight their commitment to cracking down on crime and criminals because that is something that, well, Fox News would say.

This has got to stop. Weakness on crime damages the Democrats’ brand and especially hurts some of their most vulnerable constituents.

concluding:

Biden (or some other leading Democrat) should say something like this, as recommended by Charlie Sykes at The Bulwark:

We must continue the fight for social justice, but it should not come at the price of public safety. In some of our biggest cities we have folks who think that we shouldn’t put criminals in jail or downplay the dangers of violent crime. They are wrong. We have to protect our families and our neighborhoods.

And then name some names. I think you know who I have in mind. It’s time for the Democrats’ Chesa Boudin Moment!

Okay, I’ll bite. What are “the causes of crime”? The U. S. is among the highest-spending countries in the world on education and healthcare (whether counting per capita, per pupil, or as a percent of GDP) so it’s not that we’re not spending enough. I think it can be argued that we’re not getting value for the money we’re spending but that’s a much tougher nut to crack than spending more. I know Kevin Drum thinks that lead paint is a contributing factor. I think it’s multi-factorial including social issues that it’s taboo to mention. I also think that it is a fact that crime pays and for many is a safe and easy way to get things you can’t get by doing honest work.

12 comments… add one
  • PD Shaw Link

    One of the points I like to make is that around the time of Independence, the U.S. became the most violent place on earth, London being the place previously seen as most violent. By the end of the 18th century, Pennsylvania’s murder rate was twice that of London. Alcohol use/abuse was much higher than in the Old World. And group violence btw/ ethnic and political groups also stood out, particularly since a lot of these divisions operated within a tradition of British identity.

    So I see a lot of American crime as old, and we’ve never liked to be policed, we like to pass laws for the sake of declaring victory over the waves of crime and use crime statistics to attack political foes. For example, “Over 75% of felony firearms cases dismissed, discharged, or diverted under SFDA Chesa Boudin.” I doubt that is unique.

    https://susanreynolds.substack.com/p/over-75-of-felony-firearms-cases?s=r

  • Drew Link

    “In some of our biggest cities we have folks who think that we shouldn’t put criminals in jail or downplay the dangers of violent crime. They are wrong. We have to protect our families and our neighborhoods.”

    This guy needs a good talking to. Why, here, steve informed us, and there were extensive comments in an OTB thread, that the real crime centers are red state rural areas. Never mind those false pictures of beatings, car jackings, shootings, and rampant retail theft in the cities you see on the TV night after night.

    The real problem is in places like Bluffton, SC. Why, we have had a real epidemic of machete hackings recently. People are actually thinking about locking their doors……..

  • steve Link

    Crime is real in both places, you just find more of it much of the time in rural places. Link goes to the article you failed (purposely I suppose) to understand. If your goal is to live to 80 or beyond you want to live in the city. If your goal is to not be shot to death, you live rural. If your goal is to avoid violent crime rural is worse but there are a lot of bad cities also. This will require you to reach beyond your anecdote sources but pretty sure you took some math in training. (As I said elsewhere I have been pretty heavily involved in rural medicine the last 10 years due to our growth. This stuff is glaringly obvious if you do medicine in rural areas. Its a problem I have addressed with maybe a tiny bit of success.)

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-07/is-new-york-city-more-dangerous-than-rural-america

    Steve

  • I think it’s more complicated than urban vs. rural. Yes, New York City is safer than rural areas. How about St. Louis or Baltimore? Additionally, farms are dangerous places. When you discount accidental death what do the stats show?

    Based on the FBI statistics urban crime statistics are roughly correlated with percentage black population. Said another way: gangs. But, again, based on FBI statistics that’s not the case in rural areas.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    What’s rural?
    We have thousands of small towns (under 1500) in this state which have NEVER had a murder.

  • Grey Shambler Link
  • TastyBits Link

    Presently, a criminal’s rights supercede the victim’s rights?

    By not prosecuting illegal gun possession, the criminal’s right “to bear arms” is being upheld, and the proposed solution is to control legal gun possession.

    Criminals right “against cruel and unusual punishment” is upheld but not the law abiding victims.

    The mandatory sentences and three strike laws were a reaction to the crime in the 1980’s, and they will return. (NOTE: The crack wars were the reason for the harsher penalties.)

    It should be two strikes and you’re out. By the second conviction, a criminal has committed multiple crimes, and most likely, he/she has an extensive juvenile record.

    Criminals subject themselves to brutality, and they have accepted the risk of being shot and killed. If George Floyd were a CEO, plumber, or burger flipper, he would still be alive. He chose to play the game. His victims did not.

    (I hear those Amish gangs are brutal.)

  • An enormous problem facing us, as I have pointed out, is that lawmakers, law enforcement officers, prosecutors, and judges are not rowing in the same direction. The result is a system that is extremely capricious. There are judges who are reluctant to impose penalties for crimes and “Maximum Bob” judges. There are prosecutors who only bring “slam-dunk” cases to court and some who don’t even bring those. Many laws are rarely enforced even when the violations are flagrant. Juvenile offenders frequently get off with warnings. And lawmakers, eager to “do something”, pass more laws. As Tasty points out once a criminal is actually convicted of anything he or she is likely to have been arrested dozens of times.

  • steve Link

    Yes, it is more complicated than urban vs rural. You have medium metro areas and small ones. However, the risk is higher in them also than most urban areas.

    “We have thousands of small towns (under 1500) in this state which have NEVER had a murder.”

    The highest homicide rates in big cities are in the range of 20-30 per 100,000 (NYC at about 5 and Baltimore over 50). The population of my mailing address town is 2,300 so numbers being numbers of course we will have lots of small towns that dont have homicides. So as I said above, and many times elsewhere, if your concern is just avoiding homicides small towns/rural/etc are safer. But, if you are looking at safety, looking at risk of dying and looking at more common violent crimes then the low population areas dont do so well. They are sitting at rates of death of about 45 per 100,000 vs 25 per 100,000 for most large cities and the smaller cities in between.

    Steve

  • steve Link

    For those who care, here is the JAMA article I couldn’t find earlier. Death rates are higher in rural areas and the difference is growing. There are follow up studies showing that there is a GOP/Dem divide on this with GOP areas doing worse in essentially all health categories.

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2780628

    Steve

  • Grey Shambler Link

    Seems like you jumped off the murder rate track and onto general mortality.

  • steve Link

    I keep saying this over and over.

    ” So as I said above, and many times elsewhere, if your concern is just avoiding homicides small towns/rural/etc are safer. But, if you are looking at safety, looking at risk of dying and looking at more common violent crimes then the low population areas dont do so well.”

    I find it odd that people would think about where to live based solely upon murder rates. Murder is pretty rare. Other crimes are more common and other cases of unexpected death are more common. Look at San Francisco. Low homicide rate. The other crimes are at much higher rates so some people think it is not as good to live there as in the past.

    Steve

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