I honestly don’t know where some people get their ideas. I hope that the viewpoints expressed by Nadia Schadlow in her op-ed in the Wall Street Journal spring from attending too many cocktail parties with German and French diplomats. Otherwise it’s completely detached from reality. Here’s the nub:
Chaos is spreading throughout the world as a direct consequence of America’s failure to deter Russia, Iran and China. The balance of power in key regions is faltering, leading to instability and global disorder. Like it or not, the U.S. is the only force that can restore equilibrium.
and
The challenge for the U.S. now is to restore balance in the world. The Biden administration’s management of the Israeli response in Gaza and the continuing war in Ukraine are crucial. America’s adversaries are watching.
The U.S. can’t be passive in its support for allies. It isn’t enough to be the arsenal of democracy. America has unique military and intelligence capabilities that can help Israel and Ukraine defeat existential threats to their sovereignty. American diplomats must convince the Arab world—particularly the Gulf states—that a region dominated by Iran and roiled in conflict will doom their growing economies. If the U.S. succeeds, it will send a clear message to China about the perils of messing with America’s friends.
Practically nothing in those passages has any referent, i.e. they doesn’t refer to anything real. In the actual, material real world there is no such thing as a “rules-based order”. There are countries that pursue their own secular national interests, bending or breaking the rules of the rules-based order to the degree that furthers those objectives and that they can. For a brief period, the merest flick of an eye in terms of world history, from 1992 to 2007 (at the very latest), the United States could impose its will on a less than willing world largely unimpeded. That was the period of American hegemony. It’s been over now for fifteen years.
There is also no “arsenal of democracy”. We and our NATO allies gave Ukraine a bunch of stuff we weren’t using and have been struggling to restock our shelves ever since. Not only are we unable to supply Israel and Ukraine at the same time, we can’t supply Ukraine by itself.
In time given the will we might be able to but it would take years for us to catch up. Add another conflict. Or imagine that Israel’s campaign against Hamas (with occasional punctuation by Hezbollah) were to spread into a regional conflict. What would we do then?
Two more points. First, Dr. Schadlow mentions the risks in Central Europe, the Middle East, and Asia but there’s a significant omission from that list. Latin America is presently being “destabilized” or, as Dr. Schadlow would put it, falling into chaos as the result of China’s efforts in the region, at least according to this statement (PDF) made to the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere last year by Dr. R. Evan Ellis.
My last point is that there’s some evidence that Germany is being roused from its multi-decade fugue into fantasy. I hope to get to that in another post. I think that we and Germany would have been better off if they hadn’t been kidding themselves for the last forty years or so.
Wow, that is pretty dumb.
“The challenge for the U.S. now is to restore balance in the world.”
What does that even mean? What balance?
You see what I mean? I have no idea what she means. There was never balance in the world. For a few years after WWII and another few years after the collapse of the Soviet Union there was U. S. hegemony. That’s the opposite of balance.
I think she wants to restore hegemony. Lots of luck with that.
” from 1992 to 2007 (at the very latest), the United States could impose its will on a less than willing world largely unimpeded.”
If by impose will you mean invade countries, sure. I would not consider wha happened in Iraq or Afghanistan as imposing our will. Neither got turned into Sweden. FTR, I think if we really wanted to there are still a lot of small countries we could easily invade and quickly overcome their militaries. Winning the occupation would be another story.
That said, the balance thing is something I think I see occasionally and it seems weird. We dont control the world and we dont want or need to be involved in everything.
Steve
“Latin America is presently being “destabilized†or, as Dr. Schadlow would put it, falling into chaos as the result of China’s efforts in the region”
I don’t quite see it as “destabilized”. The Chinese are gaining influence because they are willing to put real investments there (factories, mines, ports), willing to work with anyone — committed democrats or classic strongmen, and appeals to Latin America’s desire to have a balancing force to Uncle Sam. Its comparable to why Vietnam desires to have good relations with the US to balance China.
The one country which is a concern is Venezuela; Chinese + Russian + Iranian assistance helped Maduro survive, and now with higher oil prices and Biden’s need for more oil, all US efforts to constrain the regime have fallen away. Given Venezuela’s size, oil wealth, and location, it could/will be an order of magnitude worse headache then Cuba ever was. Recently Venezuela is heating up a border dispute with Guyana, which in recent years has become a major oil producer….