I have realized that my assumptions about this “novel coronavirus”, COVID-19, seem to be quite different than those most people, especially most policy-makers, are proceeding on. I’m assuming something that approximates a worst-case scenario, that the contagiousness and virulence of the disease don’t abate when the weather becomes warmer, that it doesn’t just vanish, and that no effective vaccine is ever developed for it. I also assume that none of the information that has been published by the Chinese authorities about the disease is reliable, although one regular commenter here has produced reasonable evidence that the disease has, in fact, abated in China at least temporarily.
Here’s my question. Does it make a difference? Should different policies be followed depending on the assumptions and what are the implications of following the wrong course?
As I’m sure all know, the two primary theories are containment and herd immunity. If your assumptions are correct, or if compliance proves impossible to enforce, containment will evolve into herd immunity over time.
Some say let’s just get on with it. Kind of like your comment awhile back about take our chances. Some want to buy time with containment and hope for a vaccine, or at least the ramp up in beds and inhalators to save the afflicted.
Different trade offs with each. I’m going to stop, and see what reactions people have to your query.
Nothing that is being done now would change – since the goal of everything is to prevent the health care system from collapsing from load.
The more time you buy, the more you can surge the health care system’s capacity.
Those worse case assumptions has very ominous implications for globalization / trade in the medium to long term through.
As I said to family – from genome sequencing scientists determined the vast majority of cases in Seattle came from one travel case. That patient did everything right, reported it to health authorities, got treated in isolation. But apparently it spread to other people before he was symptomatic.
If 1 person can cripple a city – how can you formulate a non-draconian policy in response?
The natural inclination of people is to delay. To “surge the health care system’s capacity” requires a greater sense of urgency. In other words the very measures intended to provide time for such a surge reduce the predisposition to surge. I don’t think that either the civil bureaucracy or the private sector is suited for something of this sort. It’s going to require military involvement and that is unprecedented other than in cases of natural disaster which are rather different.
Military involvement – since there are calls from Gov Cuomo to get the army involved and Trump did not rule it out…. it may happen.
Yeah, have Governor Cuomo call out the National Guard and try to enforce shelter in place curfews in rural and upstate New York. And while they’re doing that maybe enforce some of the gun restrictive laws now in place in that state. What could possibly go wrong?
I’m not saying that he would. Personally I think he’d be insane to do something that stupid (but then I often wonder about Andrew’s sanity). But a rumor that he would do exactly that would go through the rabid portions of the 2A community like a virus. That’s all we need, an active guerrilla war in this country. Because #ResistNYDictator would spread and rapidly. One must be very VERY careful when using uniformed personnel who are NOT trained in law enforcement to try to enforce laws. All sorts of bad can result, especially when people are scared for their families and about their future food intake.
Yep. That’s why I think it ain’t gonna happen.
When I went to vote this morning there was a cluster of campaign workers clustered around the entrance of the facility. I had to ask them to step back so I could pass at a safe distance. If people won’t take “social distancing” seriously when the governor has closed all the bars and restaurants, when will they?
“If people won’t take “social distancing†seriously when the governor has closed all the bars and restaurants, when will they?”
A certain fraction won’t. The spring break crowd is proving that down here. And surely all have seen the pictures from New Orleans. This is why containment can’t really work. Whether the irresponsible or the unknowing, there will be people who spread it. A few superspreaders, as noted in an earlier comment, will make sure of it.
Ultimately it seems that herd immunity, or some totally unknown reason, will prevail, unless and until a vaccine becomes a reality.
(BTW – that was true in the 1857 Asian flu)
1957
Link to article about surging medical care. I think that the military can probably increase things some. They have portable hospitals and could probably build similar units quickly, but not sure where ventilators and such come from. (Also, nice chart showing that Japan and S Korea have a lot more hospital beds than most countries.)
Steve