In the light of our earlier conversation you might want to read this article by Thomas W. Overton at Power:
In 1950, the idea of powering an entire country with solar energy was science fiction. But in 2017, it’s become—paired with wind and other renewable generation—an idea many experts and policymakers are talking about as an entirely feasible goal. Municipalities around the world have made 100% renewables targets a matter of law, large corporations like Google and Amazon have declared intentions to source all their power needs from renewables (Figure 1), and even a few countries such as Denmark that currently rely on fossil fuels for a substantial portion of their power are targeting 100% renewable generation in the next few decades. Most recently, the COP21 Paris climate agreement set a target of 100% renewables worldwide by 2050.
It makes for interesting reading.
Update
The main academic spokesman on this subject seems to be the frequently cited Mark Jacobson whose summary paper on becoming oil-free by 2050 is here.
It reads like an investment bankers pitch book on how a company can grow. A little of this, assume that, “starting to be adopted,” “some experts say,” if you assume……. people with facility with numbers……and too much time on their hands.
Look at the graphic. The largest increase in alternatives usage? 2020 to 2030. Wanna bet? I’ll take all the action on that I can get.
Fairly balanced article that notes some of the problems and ends with this.
“Whatever the possibilities, the reality is likely to take longer.”
Still, the important part is when it notes that costs have decreased faster than expected. We will need fossil fuels for a long time yet, but as other energy sources become cheaper we will use less.
Steve
“We will need fossil fuels for a long time yet, but as other energy sources become cheaper we will use less.”
There’s a fly in the ointment – remember that word, ointment.
Fossil fuels supply a lot more than energy. A barrel of crude oil (42 gallons) yields, on average, 21 gallons of gasoline. The rest is used in more than 10,000 other products – aviation fuel, diesel, asphalt, lubricants, plastics, pharmaceuticals (ointment) & c. For most of these products there is no viable replacement for petroleum.
If we reduce the consumption of gasoline we either get by with fewer of these other products or their prices will increase and we’ll have to dispose of the excess gasoline.
Here’s an idea – let’s put the gasoline in the 250 million cars we have, which are the most environmentally friendly way to dispose of the gasoline and also get us to Grandma’s house for Thanksgiving.
Ten year plan.
Roy Lofquist: If we reduce the consumption of gasoline we either get by with fewer of these other products or their prices will increase and we’ll have to dispose of the excess gasoline.
Don’t worry, all the products of petroleum can be used for other purposes with much reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
Zachriel:
What are you going to do with the gasoline?
Roy Lofquist: What are you going to do with the gasoline?
It’s called chemistry. Gasoline (naphtha) is already utilized as a petrochemical feed stock, and is a primary source material for ethylene and propylene used in the production of plastic.
What is the demand for ethylene and propylene?
Roy Lofquist: What is the demand for ethylene and propylene?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dug-G9xVdVs
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30212&src=email
That only tells part of the story. Wind and solar combined are still a small proportion of total energy generation capacity. At the present rate of increase it will be a very long time before they supplant coal, oil, and natural gas.