I don’t post breathlessly at every rise or fall of a president’s approval rating but I do take not of significant developments and I think we’re in the midst of one right now. I believe that the spread (approval minus disapproval) in President Biden’s RCP Average is the worst of his presidency to date.
There are a number of reasons that is not a good sign but at least to my eye the very worst part is that President Biden’s approval rating and disapproval ratings both get better when he maintins a low profile. In other words not only is there not much he can do about it but doing something about it actually makes it worse.
The president appears to have a floor of support of around 40% and a floor of disapproval at around 52%.
Democrats had better hope that the November midterms are not a referendum on President Biden (as has been the case in practically every midterm election in my memory).
It would be alarming if many people, including those working in the White House, believe Biden’s true floor is 40%.
George Bush showed it can go far below 40% if governance is continually mismanaged or events run away from a President.
By the way. hotair.com reported that Cook’s political report has updated its projections of Republican gains of 15-25 seats to 20-35 seats.
At the upper end; loss of 30 seats would be consistent with a firm rebuke of the President (along the lines of 2006). Not yet a disaster like 1994 or 2010.
The Senate is still murky.
It is possible the fall elections will be an historic bloodbath, with the Republicans capturing both Houses, although a fat lot of good that will do Americans.
The Russians are winning the shooting war against Ukraine and the economic war against the West. Sanctions against Russia’s oil and gas exports to the EU and US have not yet even begun, and won’t for several months, yet today oil is up another 2% to $123/bbl, and the ruble is up another 2% at 60.50 per dollar. I paid $4.89/gal for regular two days ago, and Ohio is usually a low-price state for gasoline, because of our refineries.
Today, the WSJ carried a story that China’s exports to the US are down. But David Goldman at Asia Times (“Spengler”) notes that the reported data are uncorrected for seasonality, and this if the corrections are made China’s exports to the US are at record high levels. Now that the worst covid impacts are over, America’s imports from China continue to be on the same exponential growth as before covid.
The Journal is also reporting that Russia continues to block grain exports from Ukraine, and there is insane talk in Congress about putting together a naval flotilla to destroy the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Yet the reality is that Ukraine mined its own ports to prevent a likely Russian amphibious assault, and Ukraine refuses to remove the mines. Russia has repeatedly stated it would grant free passage to any grain ships is someone would remove the mines.
Turkey (Türkiye) will not let warships through the Dardanelles. Will we fight our way through? How did that work in 1915?
If our leaders cannot get even the most basic facts right, how can they devise any policy that will work?
So all indications are that the shooting war and economic war will be much worse in the fall than now, and that economic conditions in the US and EU will be disastrous, at least another Great Recession like 2008. Biden’s approval rating may fall to an historic low, but the real problem will be the economy. Didn’t some Democrat once say, “It’s the economy, stupid!”? I think I actually voted for him.
Over the period of the last more than 50 years I have voted for exactly one presidential candidate who actually won: Barack Obama in 2008. McCain was simply too much of a warmonger for me. However, it turned out to be a case of “fool me once”.
Re: “bloodbath”
It looks increasingly like 2022 will be realigning midterm like 1930 or 1994.
I hope Biden’s approval rating will absolutely be a referendum on his presidency. Wasn’t it one on the Trump presidency? And, when Biden first entered office January 21 the state of our union was far better in most categorizes than it is now.