Begun It Has

Last night (this morning Russian time) Russian President Vladimir Putin declared war on Ukraine and initiated his invasion in earnest. Reaction from the U. S. and Europe, as you might expect, has been shock and dismay. The Associated Press reports:

PARIS – French President Emmanuel Macron says France and its European allies did everything to try to head off the attack on Ukraine. He said that they will show “no weakness” in their response.

Macron said in a televised address to the nation Thursday that Russia’s attack is a “turning point in European history” and as a result “there will be profound consequences for our continent and changes in our lives.”

He said that “to this act of war, we will reply without weakness, we will reply calmly and in a determined and united manner.”

“We have tried everything to avoid this war but it is here and we are ready,” Macron said.

He said that sanctions will be “proportionate” to Russia’s military operations, targeting its economy and its energy sector.

According to the World Bank, Russia’s primary exports are oil and gas. Exports comprise about twice as much of Russia’s economy as our but, unlike the U. S., it runs a substantial trade surplus. Its largest trading partner by far is China. The Chinese response to today’s developments has been, as Christian Shepherd puts it in the Washington Post, “muted”:

China on Thursday denied backing Russia’s military assault in Ukraine as it treaded a cautious line in response to a conflict that many Chinese analysts just days before were predicting wouldn’t happen.

At a regular briefing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying downplayed the suggestion that Beijing was supporting Moscow behind the scenes.

“As for American hints that Russia had China backing it up, I’m sure Russia would be pleased to hear it,” Hua said. “We won’t be like America and provide Ukraine a large amount of military equipment. Russia as a powerful nation also does not need China or other countries to provide [military assistance].”

Hua added that “China did not wish to see what happened in Ukraine today.”

In her remarks, Hua called out NATO for owing China a “debt of blood” over the bombing of the Chinese embassy to Yugoslavia by U.S. warplanes in 1999. Bringing up the more than 20-year-old incident was likely an effort to drum up anti-U.S. sentiment against the backdrop of the Russian attacks on Ukraine.

which you will recognize hearkens back to the points I have made here. I found this interesting:

Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, noted Tuesday that the Chinese policy community appeared to be in “shock” at the sudden escalation of fighting after having “subscribed to the theory that Putin was only posturing and that U.S. intelligence was inaccurate as in the case of invading Iraq.”

For instance, in an interview on Tuesday, Ma Bin, a Russia expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, told the Chinese publication Yicai that the ball was in Ukraine’s court and “there would not be a war” because Russia still preferred a diplomatic resolution.

which is quite similar to what I have been saying but acknowledged was wrong. As is not particularly surprising, the Chinese blame us:

In the run-up to Putin’s announcement, China continued to blame the United States and NATO for being instigators of the conflict, brushing aside warnings from the White House about the Kremlin’s intention to invade.

“A key question here is what role the U.S., the culprit of current tensions surrounding Ukraine, has played,” Hua, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Wednesday. “If someone keeps pouring oil on the flame while accusing others of not doing their best to put out the fire, such kind of behavior is clearly irresponsible and immoral.”

Hua also rejected suggestions that China might adhere to U.S.-led sanctions against Russia, pointing to China’s long-held stance against the use of sanctions adopted outside of United Nations deliberations.

and the invasion is a consequence of “provocation from the United States”. China’s imports from Russia are greater than the next two importers, Netherlands and Great Britain, combined. The United States is the tenth largest importer of goods from Russia and our imports are a relatively small proportion of the whole. Belarus and Kazakhstan, each of whose imports from Russia are significantly greater than ours, are unlikely to impose trade sanctions against Russia.

A major question is how Germany will react. Deutsche-Welle remonstrates:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has major consequences for Germany’s foreign policy.

Following Russia’s attack on Thursday morning, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz took to Twitte to say:

“The situation is serious. The peace in Europe is built on not changing borders. We must return to these principles: State sovereignty is respected. Borders will not be moved.”

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was more emotional, warning that the would would “not forget this day of shame.” “Germany is stunned, but not helpless,” she said, announcing a package of “massive sanctions.”

On Monday Scholz’s decision to put Nord Stream 2 on hold following Moscow’s recognition of the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine was itself an awkward U-turn for a chancellor who has not yet been in office for three months.

At the start of his tenure in December, Scholz was still describing the gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea — recently completed but not yet online — as a purely private economic project, even though it is owned by a company that the Russian state has a controlling stake in. Now, Nord Stream 2 proves to be very much the political tool that many of Germany’s geopolitical partners, especially the US government, had always seen it as.

The Kremlin’s move also leaves the policies of Scholz’s predecessor Angela Merkel in ruins. Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Merkel invested much effort into putting the Minsk Protocols into place: joining France in efforts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine and create a fragile peace.

Note that Germany’s suspension of the certification of the NS2 pipeline has no effect on present Russian-German trade. It had not come online. Whether Germany will take any action which bears present costs for Germany remains to be seen.