I reject Eduardo Porter’s analysis in his New York Times report of why some “Rust Belt” cities continued to prosper while many languished. He points to location and “smart industrial zoning” while ignoring the elephant in the room. His three examples—St. Cloud, Minnesota; Grand Rapids, Michigan; and, Green Bay, Wisconsin all have some demographic features in common. Their populations are all 2/3s or more of primarily European descent and they’re younger than the national average. His contrasting examples—Decatur, Illinois and Racine, Wisconsin—are either older (Decatur) or less white (Racine).
“Be young and white” is a lousy prescription for success.
The interesting thing about Decatur, unmentioned in the piece, is that the city is under the patronage of a Buffett heir, who has been given tens of millions of dollars from his father to pursue charitable interests. His foundation’s goal has been to staunch the population loss, particularly by making the city more appealing to young people and families. I’ve not seen any assessment of the results, but have noticed spending on law enforcement training and public parks, zoo and museum have been mentioned in the news.
What struck me about Mr. Porter’s piece is that there’s nothing in his CV to suggest that he’s even visited any of the places in the “Rust Belt” cited. I’ve visited all of them. Heck, I spent most of last week just outside Racine. One of the things that strikes one most about St. Cloud, Grand Rapids, and Green Bay is how few Hispanics there are in any of them and I suspect that would stand out to Mr. Porter even more than it would to me.
I believe that has run-on effects, one of which is that the black unemployment rate is lower in those places than in comparable places with larger numbers of Hispanics.
I also believe that Mr. Porter is writing with very little actual knowledge.
We have relatives in a small town between Milwaukee and Green Bay – it’s a nicer area than I thought it would be. Milwaukee seems to be doing pretty well from what little I’ve seen.
We had the Grand Rapids area on our short-list of places to move and settle, simply because the surrounding area is the top-rated for raising families in the entire US and it has a decent outdoor activity culture. But the winters…
All I can really speak about with any authority is my home city of Denver which is flourishing (too much IMO), with a huge Hispanic population (about 1/3), slightly fewer Blacks and Asians than the US average, but more Native Americans.
Denver’s seen a long period of growth – the last major economic stagnation was in the 1980’s after the oil shale bust. Denver also lost a lot of federal government support – two major base closings, as well as consolidation in the defense industry, moved jobs elsewhere. Since then, the economy has greatly diversified which I think matters more for its success over the past three decades than demographics – the metro area has grown less “white” particularly the Hispanic population, which has doubled.
All of which has nothing to do with the rust belt or the article, but it makes me question demographics as a factor.
You may be right but if so we’ve got nothin’ We can’t even staunch the bleeding.
Location is not remediable. “Smart industrial zoning” doesn’t pass the laugh test. I’d like a solution to the decline of the “Rust Belt” that’s actually applicable and will work with the population we actually have but I don’t see one.
I’ve been to all of these cities except St. Cloud. The population of these cities is on the small side, ranging from 73,000 (Decatur) to 188,000 (Grand Rapids). The two “problem” cities have an average population of about 75,000, while the three “success” stories have average populations of 120,000. Maybe that’s merely restating the problem, but smaller cities will have more difficulty diversifying from large plant shutdowns.
But all of these cities are located in a metropolitan statistical area. Three of them with populations over a million (Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Minneapolis) and two are smaller Green Bay (306,241) and Decatur (110,786). Obviously, one of the solutions for manufacturing cities would be to be in a larger metro. I suspect that one of the guiding principles of Buffett’s philanthropy is promote Decatur as a pleasant place to live, and I believe there are a lot of people that work in Decatur that commute from the next county over: (Champaign-Urbana MSA, pop. 232,000; Springfield MSA, pop. 210,000; Bloomington MSA, pop. 186,000) All three of these adjoining places have state universities btw/, and none of them smell like ethanol (or as my daughter says, “this place smells like Cheerios”)
On race, Grand Rapids seems to be the outlier. The cities doing poorly are above national averages* for African-Americans (Decatur, 19.47%; Racine, 22.6%), while two of the success stories are below the national average for A-A (St. Cloud, 7.8%; Green Bay, 3.5%). Grand Rapids is at 20.9%.
I’m not sure why Grand Rapids is different, though a quick google found this article that complained that the city was ranked among the worst economically for African-Americans. Two points made: First, “Many of the metro areas at the bottom of our list are the once-mighty manufacturing hubs where Southern blacks flocked in the Great Migration . . ..” Second, here are the top ten cites were African-Americans are doing the best economically:
1. Atlanta
2. Raleigh, N.C.
3. Washington, D.C.
4. Baltimore
5. Charlotte, N.C.
6. Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Va.
7. Orlando, Fla.
8. Miami
9. Richmond, Va.
10. San Antonio, Texas
Best read while whistling Dixie.
* Blacks make up 12.6% of the U.S. population.
That’s a subject on which I hope to post some time. I think there’s a sort of reverse Great Migration going on. IMO the reasons that blacks are moving to Atlanta, Raleigh, etc. are obvious:
1. Those metros are doing well economically and there are jobs there.
2. They’re confident in the social support systems that will be available in those places–established black populations, etc. They may have relatives there.
Atlanta is a really wonderful example.
And, as I’ve said before, IMO the worst racism is in the North now.
“Why some “Rust Belt†cities continued to prosper while many languished.”
I wish there were a way to factor in cities where more children are raised in intact families and are active members of a church or synagogue.
Those HAVE to be more important than museums or city parks when it comes to living standards.
“And, as I’ve said before, IMO the worst racism is in the North now.â€
Absolutely.
Racism? By whom, against whom?
Fear and distrust of the “other” is human nature, experienced by all of us. We have made all outward expressions of racism illegal. What now?
I think it’s fair to say that when police officers are torturing blacks (but not whites) and gunning blacks down in the street (but not whites) that racism is involved.
Dave! With all the respect in the world, where are you getting your news? Rolling Stone? Huffington Post? I don’t see it, I think these are the kind of stories my wife reads on Facebook written by Democratic political operatives or bots.
If you are referring to African American-Police interactions it’s because of the perception, (not unfounded) by police that young Black men carry guns, which they do. Any sensible police officer has to be aware of that, and yes, it results in death of suspects, but that’s NOT racism, it’s common sense survival skills kicking in.
Try the Chicago Tribune
Burge victim
Sacramento police kill unarmed man
This made national news.
Another police shooting
And another police shooting
Chicago is either the most segregated city in the United States or nearly so.