The Financial Times reports that the preliminary results of the 2020 Chinese census have been released and that China’s population has declined:
China’s birth rates have weakened even after Beijing relaxed its decades-long family planning policy in 2015, allowing all couples to have two children instead of one. The population expanded under the one-child policy introduced in the late 1970s, thanks to a bulging population of young people in the aftermath of the Communist revolution as well as increased life expectancy.
[…]
Official data showed the number of newborns in China increased in 2016 but then fell for three consecutive years. Officials blamed the decline on a shrinking number of young women and the surging costs of child-rearing.
The real picture could be even worse. In a report published last week, China’s central bank estimated that the total fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman was likely to have in her lifetime, was less than 1.5, compared with the official estimate of 1.8.
“It is almost a fact that China has overestimated its birth rate,†the People’s Bank of China said. “The challenges brought about by China’s demographic shift could be bigger [than expected].â€
A Beijing-based government adviser who declined to be identified said such overestimates stemmed in part from the fiscal system’s use of population figures to determine budgets, including for education and public security.
It’s the first time the population has declined since the “Great Leap Forward”.
Experience with official Chinese statistics suggests that the reported decline is being understated.
There is another explanation for the declining birthrate other than the official one. Young women are the preferred workers in China’s factories. They can either assemble iPhones or rear children but doing both is difficult.
Given that the birthrate has been below the replacement rate in every year of the last five, it’s a mathematical certainty that China’s working age population in 2040 will be lower than it is now. How that will affect the prospects for a “Chinese century” is a matter of speculation.
IMO China’s dependence on low margin manufacturing coupled with a shrinking population and an adverse dependency ratio will necessitate some difficult decisions. I recognize that the latest five year plan is trying to remedy that. It will be interesting to see how that fares.
Now we know where to send all those people coming across our southern border.
Steve
Or they can get advice from Merkel.
https://www.cgdev.org/blog/five-years-later-one-million-refugees-are-thriving-germany
Steve
Clearly China needs a massive distribution campaign of porno flicks, and visas for Steve’s Latin buddies.
At least they are all rapists so they won’t need the porno flicks.
Steve
Except for sub-Saharan Africa, virtually every country in the world has below replacement fertility. Our high immigration rates tends to mask statistics, but the White population of the US also has a below replacement reproduction rate. The White population of the US is what keeps its economy going, what generates it science and technology, and is the basis of its democracy and legal systems. The diminution of its White population will doom America to a regional, impoverished, authoritarian power. The remaining Chinese will laugh at us and become the uncontested hegemon.
Some European countries like Spain, Italy, Germany have rates nearly one-half replacement, meaning each generation is half the previous one. European civilization is rapidly dying, and Europe is undergoing a racial replacement not seen since the Indo-European horsemen overran the Neolithic Anatolian farmers.
The world population should peak around 8 to 8.5 billion about 2030, or a little after, and then begin a long slow decline. This is greatly to be desired. As long as per caput GDP does not decline, a falling population and a falling GDP are harmless, even desirable. Japan has a falling population now, but its per caput GDP is rising. They seem to know something.
People are forever ranting on about how bad it is in Russia and China or whatever while ignoring the ongoing collapse occurring around them. Beam vs mote.
With the right kind of centralized, command and control management, using modern agricultural breeding methods, one healthy woman should be able to produce 25 citizens healthy in mind and body before age renders her useless. This is only a matter of resource management.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/features/uighurs/
Immigrants start about 25% of our new businesses according to Forbes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dinahwisenberg/2018/07/31/immigrant-entrepreneurs-form-25-of-new-u-s-business-researchers/?sh=35a8662c713b
Steve
No argument about that. Now show me what percentage of new businesses are being started by migrant workers from Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. There are some to be sure but they aren’t Bell Telephone, Levis Strauss, Google, or even Chobani. That’s why I think we need to start making distinctions between groups of immigrants and need a migrant worker program to facilitate movement across the border for workers with legal authorization to work here.
Throw out the Mexican restaurants that employ mainly family and there’s not much new business left in your statistics.
I think there’s a bit more than that. In addition to hospitality there’s also lawn service and some small scale retail. The key point is that people do what they know and what they’re trained to do.
Another immigrant who started a business whom they failed to mention is Elon Musk. There is considerable difference between Elon Musk or Sergei Brin and the Mexican, Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran immigrants who are making their way to this country. The former brought skills that led to high margin jobs. The latter don’t have those skills. As I noted in an earlier post they may have other skills but rarely in high margin sectors. We don’t have bankers or proctologists paying coyotes to bring them into the U. S.
Construction in our area is heavily dominated by Hispanics whom I suspect are largely undocumented. Not just Mexican restaurants but chain restaurants in general, but don’t worry. The bad immigrants are going to China where they need people with strong sex drive
Thought the Germany article was interesting. Some people thought that immigrant surge would end her career. Instead the terror killings stopped and they are learning German and working.
Steve
In our area it’s more complicated than that. Laborers and workers in low pay jobs with low barriers and costs of entry tend to be Mexicans. Most other workers are not Hispanic. So, for example, demo is done by Mexicans. The carpenters, masons, electricians, plumbers, etc. aren’t. That includes the guys operating the backhoes.
In general a lot of restaurants are opened or franchised by legal immigrants who then hire relatives and others they sponsor to work in them.
I would file the Germany article under the category “it’s too early to tell”. There are still ethnic Turks in Germany whose grandparents were born there who aren’t citizens. Despite its large percentage of immigrants Germany has nothing like our situation in which a very large percent of its population are citizens of a neighboring country.
Germany still has a “church tax” and I suspect that will become quite controversial in the near future.
We usually have one non-Hispanic running things then the rest of the crew is Hispanic. Electricians and plumbers are no Hispanic, except for their helpers. Rough carpenters are Hispanic, finish carpenters are not, actually with fair amount of Eastern europeans. (Used to be a lot of Amish crews and I think there are still a few i just dont see them.) Agriculture has lots of Hispanics also. Roofers are Hispanic. HVAC are not.
Steve