You might want to take a look at Graham Allison’s article at The National Interest in which he lays out several possible ways in which the United States could end up in a war with China, something he refers to as “the Thucidydes Trap”, recalling the story of the Peloponnesian Wars:
In the years ahead, could a collision between American and Chinese warships in the South China Sea, a drive toward national independence in Taiwan or jockeying between China and Japan over islands on which no one wants to live spark a war between China and the United States that neither wants? It may seem hard to imagine—the consequences would be so obviously disproportionate to any gains either side could hope to achieve. Even a non-nuclear war conducted mostly at sea and in the air could kill thousands of combatants on both sides. Moreover, the economic impact of such a war would be massive. A 2016 RAND study found that, after just one year, American GDP could decline by up to 10 percent and Chinese GDP by as much as 35 percent—setbacks on par with the Great Depression. And if a war did go nuclear, both nations would be utterly destroyed. Chinese and American leaders know they cannot let that happen.
I find his scenarios extremely plausible. However, I think the risks are actually much simpler. To my eye they are:
- Brinksmanship on the part of the Chinese authorities
- The weakness of the Chinese regime
- The failure of the United States to pursue its own grand strategy in favor of near term global hegemony
and, most importantly, lack of patience on the part of American leaders. If we only look after our own vital interests and remain patient, China’s own internal conflicts will deal with the situation for us. We should be more concerned about a shooting war than a trade war.
