Based on what’s being reported now, the dictator of Syria, Bashar al-Assad’s government has been overthrown by Syria rebels and Assad has fled the country.
Bashar al-Assad is a bad guy. No doubt about it. But my joy at his having been overthrown is allayed somewhat by the conditions under which it has happened. The Syrian rebels are not good guys either and we have, heedlessly in my opinion, been supporting them.
The Middle East is complicated. For the United States at least it is not true in the Middle East that the enemy of our enemy is our friend. So far this morning I have heard the word “Alawite” once and that was in passing and without explanation.
The Assad government was a government of Syria by it Alawite minority. The Alawites live in the northeast of Syria. They comprise about 15% of Syria’s population. They are Arab Muslims and profess a version of Shi’a Islam (a different version than is professed in Iran).
While I hope that the overthrow of Assad will lead to a liberal democratic government in Syria, I am under no illusion that is likely to happen. What I think is far more likely is that Syria will descend into complete chaos for some period followed by a radical Sunni Arab authoritarian government. There may well be massacres of Alawites. The Sunni majority in the country has conducted such massacres multiple times in the past. They were suppressed by the Turks and then by the Alawites. What happens now is anybody’s guess.
I think it’s been believed that the end of Alawite rule was just a matter of time with high risks that the transition would be particularly bloody. I also recall that when Bashar came to power he got great media coverage as a modernizer and pragmatist whose Western education would guide him on a moderate course. (Alawites had typically gone to USSR for education) It’s a good example of how the smart thing (don’t alienate the Sunni majority, incorporate Sunnis into government) doesn’t happen because local realities don’t permit it.
It might be worth mentioning that the Alawite state was incorporated into Syria by the French as a concession to the Nationalist Bloc. If the Alawite state had not been incorporated into Syria, it would have left Syria land-locked. Separatist sentiment was quite strong among the Alawites for reasons I have mentioned in the past.