At TriplePundit Leon Kaye asks have we reached peak gasoline?
While many fret over whether Donald Trump will or will not shred the United States’ commitment to the global climate deal, market forces may very well help mitigate climate change risks in the long run. We will certainly see the global transportation energy mix shift over the next few decades.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the sun is already setting on gasoline. In its 2016 World Energy Outlook, the Paris-based intergovernmental agency projects an eventual decline in demand for gasoline over the next 25 years. The IEA says global demand for oil will remain steady until at least 2040, due to the lack of alternatives for truck and aviation fuel. But the agency expects electric vehicles to increasingly displace gasoline cars that run on gasoline.
I think that the answer to his question, at least in the United States, is “No”. And if present trends continue we never will.
Hybrids and electric vehicles comprise about 2% of total light vehicle sales in the United States. That’s a 50:1 advantage for internal combustion and in the U. S. most of those burn gasoline.
In other words despite a decade’s worth of hype, hybrids and EVs are still a niche market. And that’s not even getting into Jevon’s paradox. Also, keep in mind that in the U. S. it takes 20 years for the total fleet to turn over.
Saw an 18 wheeler at walmart the other day, noticed the sign on the side. “powered by by compressed natural gas” So I spoke to the driver, who worked for Frito Lay Snacks. He was in Lincoln, Ne. drove out of Wichita Ks. I asked him, what is the range? He said, about 600 miles, but boy, I miss my diesel, this thing is gutless (low power). Chips are lightweight, Lincoln and back to wichita allows for home fueling of CNG.
I’ve since read that both U P S and Fedex are running pilots of CNG, because they each return to home base every day for refueling, which cannot be done on the road at present.
My point is not that gas or diesel are done, but, I expect an increasing role for CNG.
That’s been my problem with Barrack Obama’s energy policy, He thinks you can just mandate it. In reality the market will find it’s own way.
Dunno about CNG. The gas company has a CNG pump (the only one for about a 40 mile radius) and proudly displays a price anywhere from 50 to 80 cents higher per gallon. However, understand some states allow tax reductions for buying it,while mine doesn’t.
BTW, anyone else remember the during the oil embargo when propane was the great new fuel? Local propane company had a jaguar XKE converted over. Yet, now I notice the propane delivery truck burns diesel.