Patrick Armstrong, a retired Canadian military analyst specializing in Russia, remarks on the situation in Ukraine:
So far the Russian military operation in Ukraine has been a reconnaissance in force preceded by the destruction of the supplies and headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by standoff weapons. The object being to suss out where the Ukrainian forces are, to surround them, to check existing Russian intelligence against reality and, at the same time, destroy known headquarters, air and naval assets, supplies and ammunition depots. And, perhaps, there was the hope that the speed and success (Russian/LDPR forces dominated an area of Ukraine about the size of the United Kingdom in the first week) would force an early end (aka recognition of reality).
At the moment they are readying for the next phase. The long column that so obsessed the “experts†on CNN is the preparation for the next phase. And that is this: “You didn’t get the hint, so now we have to hit youâ€. The fact that the column has been sitting there indicates that the Russians know they have complete air superiority. Secondly it is a message to the Ukrainian armed forces that it’s over, give up. (And one should never forget that the Russians/Soviets have always been the best at strategic deception, so who knows what’s actually there versus what the images show?)
As far as I can see they’ve created three cauldrons (encirclements). Probably the most important one is the one around Mariupol where the main concentration of Azov, the principal nazi force, is. Another is being established around the main concentration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces facing LDPR. And there appears to be another developing to the east of Kiev. A super cauldron of all three is visible. The nazis will be exterminated; the ordinary Ukrainian soldier will be allowed to go home. The nightmare question is how many ordinary Ukrainians will be free to choose.
Read the whole thing. You will observe how consistent his analysis is with Bill Roggio’s to which I linked earlier. I don’t believe that either Bill Roggio or Patrick Armstrong are Russian stooges or info ops.
Mr. Armstrong thinks the Ukrainian government sees the hand writing on the wall and is resigning itself to neutrality. He also points out something I observed: if the prices of oil and gas rise high enough it’s quite possible the Russians could actually benefit economically from the situation. Our response needs to be calibrated very carefully if we are to avoid being counterproductive.
Not quite sure why the fascination with this guys piece.
He is basically saying “you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.” OK. The Russians have been biding their time. And they are going to go super-animal soon.
But we always knew they would win militarily. It does not address insurgency. It does not address world reaction and fallout.
“The nazis will be exterminated;”
Yes.
“…the ordinary Ukrainian soldier will be allowed to go home.”
OK.
“The nightmare question is how many ordinary Ukrainians will be free to choose.”
I don’t even know what this means. Is it capitulation or insurgency?
“He also points out something I observed: if the prices of oil and gas rise high enough it’s quite possible the Russians could actually benefit economically from the situation. Our response needs to be calibrated very carefully if we are to avoid being counterproductive.”
Gee, I wish I had thought of that. Maybe you should give steve a ring. He seems to think our energy policy is just fine: you can have your green pandering and not aid Putin at the same time.
Armstrong appears to have a PhD in History and worked for the military as a civilian providing input at the broadest level (not opining on the military value of I wouldn’t compare him with Roggio, but with Applebaum. And Armstrong wrote and contributed to Russia Insider until he became embarrassed by their antisemitism. Whether Russia Insider is doing info ops for Russians seems to be an open question.