Thomas Friedman in the New York Times!
The Ukraine story is far from over. But if Vladimir Putin opts to back away from invading Ukraine, even temporarily, it’s because Joe Biden — that guy whose right-wing critics suggest is so deep in dementia he wouldn’t know Kyiv from Kansas or AARP from NATO — has matched every Putin chess move with an effective counter of his own.
Putin has been on such a run of outmaneuvering the West and destabilizing our politics that it is easy to overrate him. It is also hard to believe a word that comes out of his mouth. But if Putin was sincere when he said Tuesday that he was “ready to continue on the negotiating track†to ensure that Ukraine never joins NATO and was also pulling back some of his menacing forces — U.S. officials say there’s no sign of that yet — it’s because Biden’s statecraft has given Putin pause.
Specifically, the Biden team has mobilized enough solidarity among the NATO allies, enough advanced defensive arms transfers to Ukraine and enough potentially biting economic sanctions on Russia to put into Putin’s mind the only thought that matters: “If I go ahead with a full-scale invasion and it goes bad — wrecking Russia’s economy and resulting in Russian soldiers returning home in body bags from a war with fellow Slavs — could it lead to my own downfall?â€
That is the only calculation that matters, and Biden has done the best job a U.S. president could do, given the asymmetry in interests between America and Russia on Ukraine, to frame it. Ukraine is not only right next door to Russia, but it’s also a country whose fate and future are vitally important to Putin personally. By contrast, most Americans could not find Ukraine on a map and feel zero emotional attachment to its future. And, as Putin found when he seized Crimea in 2014, Americans will not send their sons and daughters to preserve Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Get that? While I agree that, should Russian President Putin not invade Ukraine in the next couple of days, President Biden will quickly take credit for it, there’s another possibility that, apparently, neither Mr. Friedman nor any other pundit I’ve read nor President Biden himself seems to have considered—that President Putin may well achieve his foreign policy goals without invading Ukraine. Has Ukraine joined NATO? Will it? I think what the last few days have demonstrated has been just how far apart the members of the alliance are.
Do you think it is more or less likely today that Ukraine will become a member of NATO? Do you think it more or less likely today that Ukraine will be admitted to the European Union?
I think that what is likely to happen is that Russia will continue to engage in cyberattacks against Ukraine and will be likely to increase them in intensity. I think that Russia will continue to engage in brinksmanship with respect to an outright invasion of Ukraine. False flag operation? (as some have suggested) That’s possible but they may not need to. Ukraine is quite capable of fomenting a catastrophe although recent signs have actually been pretty positive.
Of course, I could be proven wrong within hours, minutes even. But wasn’t the Biden Administration saying that a Russian attack was likely on Wednesday? Today is Wednesday. It’s almost 7:00pm in Moscow as I write this. If there is no attack today or tomorrow or on Friday, it will be evidence that I’m correct. If I’m wrong, I’ll be the first to admit it.
They have been saying an attack is imminent for a month. I thought there was about a zero chance Ukraine would join NATO before this. Dont think it has changed much.
Steve
Putin has no plans to invade Ukraine. There are not now nor have there even an accumulation of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border. Those were all lies.
Putin has consistently insisted that the Minsk accords be implemented, and that France and Germany abide by and enforce the accords that they, themselves, negotiated on their initiative.
Poroshenko and Zelensky have both been held hostage by the Nazi (1940 style) militias (Azov battalion et al) and Nazi political parties (Right Sektor et al) that oppose the treaty and by the US that has exerted every pressure to prevent their implementation.
The Ukrainian crisis is entirely the creation of the US (coup plus junta in 2/14), and it is the US that is sustaining it.
A sound rule of thumb is that every news release or statement from the WH/DOS/DOD/CIA is a lie. Putin and Xi can generally be relied upon to come nearer the truth.
TL;DR
Two Presidents with questionable recent records on domestic governance (US – highest official deaths due to COVID-19, inflation at 7.5%; Russia – by excess death rate, one of the hardest hit countries in the world by COVID-19; inflation at 8.7%) accuse the other of wanting a war; diverting attention from said domestic issues. War has not occurred and the underlying issue was not resolved, but supporters of the President claim he has stood up to the bad guy, achieved his goal, and done so without firing a shot.
Its just a funny take but a certain movie comes to mind.
In the more sober world. The take would be nothing has been resolved, the arms buildup isn’t likely to reverse, Ukraine’s economy has been thrown into a loop due to the tensions, and likelihood the region becomes really “hot” eventually increases.
The humor is in giving Biden credit for something that has practically nothing to do with him and which is likely to be transitory to coin a phrase.