Analysis of the French Elections (Updated)

I found this analysis of the French elections by Mathias Bernard at The Moderate Voice, originally published at The Conversation, interesting. Here’s his conclusion:

The apparent stability of the balance of power masks important changes. The political landscape continues to shift rightward. Testament to this is the emergence of Éric Zemmour’s identity-based platform and Emmanuel Macron’s renewed political offer. While Jean-Luc Mélenchon made gains, they were not enough to compensate for the Socialist Party’s precipitous decline.

Populism also continues to grow. In five years and under the effect of a certain number of social movements (the Yellow Jackets in particular), its rhetoric has become more radical. More than ever, the split between the people and the elite shows itself at the ballot box. This populist rise weakens Emmanuel Macron, whose position is less favourable than it may appear at first glance.

The incumbent president obtains scores comparable to some of his predecessors who were not re-elected for a second term: Giscard d’Estaing in 1981 (28% of the vote), Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012 (27% of the vote). Moreover, he cannot capitalise on the desire for change that largely explained his victory five years ago. The campaign between the two rounds will thus bring into play two antagonistic projects, two visions of society, but also a tension between the “dégagisme” (i.e., a political ideology based on the French verb dégager, “to oust”, calling for the rejection of the established political class) hostile to the outgoing president, and calls by most first round candidates for a collective front against the extreme right.The Conversation

I have no ability to assess the accuracy of his analysis. The outcome of the French elections is, however, important if for no other reason that the French have the only European military at the highest level of readiness.

Update

At Politico Paul Taylor adds:

Anguish over soaring food and fuel prices have raised the specter of another wave of grassroots Yellow Jacket roadblocks, and trade unions have vowed to fight his flagship manifesto pledge, which would raise the official retirement age from 62 to 65.

In a country with a long tradition of taking to the barricades, another popular revolt against a president often perceived as arrogant and technocratic is highly likely. Strikes for higher pay and against pension reform could kick off within weeks after the August summer holidays.

Similarly, if Marine Le Pen — Macron’s opponent of five years, who scored 23.2 percent in Sunday’s first round — conquers the Elysée Palace in her third attempt, the hard-right nationalist is sure to face left-wing demonstrations against her anti-immigration “national preference” platform from day one, with violence from the radical fringes very probable.

Despite Le Pen’s efforts to project herself as a stateswoman and tone down her past Euroskeptic and anti-Islam rhetoric, as well as her long-standing admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, she remains a target of hostility from the left and the mainstream media.

he predicts a third round of voting.

Update 2

At the Washington Post James McAuley says he sees four “unsettling takeaways”:

1. The election is now Macron’s to lose
2. The traditional parties have vanished, and extremes are on the rise
3. The far right has never been stronger
4. The French left is not ‘dead,’ it’s just fragmented

I remain unconvinced of several of his takeaways. Isn’t the first trivial? When an incumbent is running, it’s always his or election to lose, isn’t it? I have no comment on the French left but is the British left dead or just pining for the fjords? My point is that there’s a lot of that going around.