There are other ways for us to intervene in Ukraine without doing so militarily. Germany’s recent announcement that it would double its military spending is a start, a first step. Separating Germany from Russia should be an objective of the U. S.’s.
If we could encourage China to stop supporting the Russians even tacitly, we might win the war in Ukraine without firing a shot. China is Russia’s largest trading partner—more Russian exports go to China than the next three largest trading partners combined.
Furthermore, keeping the price of oil low would hurt Russia more than all of the sanctions we have announced. If the price of oil rises faster than the decrease in Russia’s exports, it’s possible that Russia could actually benefit from the war which is, presumably, not our intention.
Just a few thoughts.
Of the known nuclear powers; only China and India have the heft and depth of relations with both the US and Russia where their intervention could bring parties to the negotiating table.
But I think neither will change course from neutrality to forceful deescalation unless they believe a nuclear exchange is imminent.
Which brings another point; as great powers themselves, with buffer states around them; they maybe much more sympathetic to the Russian position — they don’t see this as a Ukraine/Russia problem; they see this as US/NATO/Russia problem. Their intervention could be demanding NATO give enforceable security guarantees to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire.
Don’t forget the Korean War was over a buffer state.
It would be nice to have reached an agreement to lift sanctions on Iran by now. Germany is also committing to building LNG terminals (as early as 2024), and America should serve that market.
But do realize Iran has much better relations with Russia then the US and they likely don’t mind having the US suffer a bit (and maybe a lot) of pain by turning the taps on very slowly.
There are the Saudis but because of OPEC+Russia deal and ostracization of MBS; they said they won’t change their production plans.
It’s a real mess. Russia has better relations with key powers China, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia then the US does.
China has no allies other than Russia and North Korea. They will not let the Ukrainian fiasco hurt their Russian alliance, because it is an existential issue for them. Also, a big part of those Russian exports to China is gas and oil, without which China shuts down.
The US has very little leverage on oil prices. Fracking companies are facing rapidly declining yields from their existing well and high drilling costs. A year ago, at $40/bbl many frackers were bankrupt. They need high cost oil and gas to work themselves out of debt. They are expanding capacity very slowly.
Also, Europe has a very limited capacity to import LNG, and construction of additional capacity will take a year or so minimum. Right now, if Russia were to stop gas/oil shipments to Europe, the European economy would enter a deep recession, and gas/oil prices would explode to well above $100/bbl. It’s already at $95/bbl.
It would be nice to separate Germany and Russia, but read any German blog (e.g., Moon of Alabama) or just talk to my daughter who lives in Germany. The Germans hate us and want to get rid of us.
I think that’s true and there are pragmatic reasons for that. Others obviously think differently.
The relationship between Russia and Iran is an interesting one. During WWII the Soviet Union occupied parts of Iran. I doubt the Iranians have forgotten that. The question is whether they believe that Russia and the Soviet Union are synonymous.
As to why we have not succeeded in getting a new agreement with Iran, what’s in it for Iran? No treaty will ever receive Senate ratification in the present political climate and executive agreements only go so far. We’ve already pre-conceded most of what they wanted the first time around.
That was certainly my impression when I worked there nearly 50 years ago. I have not understood why we have been pursuing German national interests against our own so much of the time.
@CuriousOnlooker, the U.S. certainly does not have much “hand” to get much from Iran. Sanctions, plus Russian help, have not succeeded, and Russia has less interest in helping lift sanctions now than it did a few months ago, while the harm to U.S. strategic interests from the sanctions have gone up, as having the risk of recession.
Thinking about it, US policy from 1940 to 1979 in the Mideast was the “twin pillars”; i.e. ensuring both Iran and Saudi Arabia had better relations with the US then the USSR. And now, due to partisan politics, it is the reverse.
Then there is the triangle policy; cooperating with China to limit the USSR. Now it is China and Russia cooperating to limit the US. I think US policy has carefully pushed both into each others arms.
There is some stuff we could do on the demand side on oil; but there are tradeoffs. The most obvious is to mandate permanent WFH where possible; that saves all the oil associated with commuting. But that comes with a tradeoff of worsening the urban decay in many cities that is partially caused by lack of workers in downtown offices.
Also, a last alternative to intervening is direct negotiations. I don’t know if its prudent, if Putin will accept anything short of annexation, but given the conflict has escalated to where core national interests (like a stable economy) are impacted; it maybe reasonable NATO holds talks with Russia alongside Ukraine.
The “twin pillars” strategy didn’t just become problematic in 1979—it was flawed from the start. Iran had been unstable for more than 40 years by then. The Shah was a sick old man; the U. S. was discouraged; Carter didn’t believe in intervening to prop the Shah up. You can argue ’round an ’round about it but the reality is that the strategy assumed a pro-U. S. Iran.
What concerns me now is the possibility that the Administration may try to keep the progressives happy and kill two birds with one stone by raising the price of oil essentially by fiat.
As for Saudi Arabia a close, friendly relationship with Saudi makes me ill. The country is sort of the “un-United States”. They’re practically our opposite in every way.
How do we both keep the price of oil low and get US producers to pump lots of oil?
Steve