Aleppo and Mosul

Unless you set out and look for it you’ll be hard put to see much in the way of news about either the campaigns to re-take Aleppo or Mosul from their DAESH captors. In the instance of Aleppo, the city appears to have been re-taken. The Washington Post reports:

Late Tuesday, Russia announced that the Syrian government was in full control of all of Aleppo, though that could not be independently confirmed.

The deal would end the intense battles and bloodshed that have wracked Aleppo. Among the dead are at least 82 civilians killed by Syrian soldiers and allied Shiite militias from Iraq and backed by Iran, according to U.N. reports.

It would also signal an end for rebel fighters clinging to their last footholds in the strategic city after being pushed back by overwhelming firepower.

There are plenty of questions remaining as in what has become of the residents of Aleppo? There’s a basic conflict between Western reports of hundreds of thousands of people under siege and the few dribs and drabs that we heard about.

There have been some reports from rebel sources of Syrian Army reprisals and brutal attacks on civilians. There are also reports from Russian sources of residents of Aleppo rejoicing at their liberation. In either case what would you expect them to say? We’ll need to wait a while for more independent judgments.

Meanwhile, there’s concern that the Mosul dam could be captured and used as a weapon of war. The Sun reports:

Weakening foundations are threatening to burst open the dam which was built by Saddam Hussein more than 30 years ago,

Should this happen a 11 trillion litres wall of water will surge into densely populated areas.

The facility is under tight guard amid concern ISIS jihadis could capture and sabotage it.

US army engineers fear a sudden collapse could flood Mosul, Iraq’s second biggest story, under 60 feet of water.

Iraqi government forces – backed by US air force and the RAF – are currently battling to expel ISIS from the city.

But if the dam breaks a fierce surge of water could do the job for them.

The Iraqi capital, Baghdad, could also be left 15ft under water.

At this point those are just conjectures. The International Business Times reports that the Iraqi government may already be declaring victory, possibly prematurely:

Iraq is bracing itself for a new phase of warfare as the Islamic State (Isis) loses its grip on Mosul and targets Iraqi cities and civilians in a bloody campaign of deadly suicide attacks.

Acting Interior Minister Ageela al-Khazali told IBTimes UK that while Iraq looked close to collapse in the summer of 2014 – when IS first seized Mosul – Iraqi forces had all but triumphed over the terrorist group on the battlefield.

But the minister added the government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi now had to work to combat the next phase of the IS threat.

In Mosul, Khazali said the the defence and intelligence services were expecting sporadic gunfights to erupt after the city, Iraq’s second largest, had been liberated.

“In the future we are expect street wars and street fighting in Mosul,” he said.

There have also been what to me appear to be rather bizarre reports of DAESH fighters from Mosul going to Syria to bolster the resistance there:

One doesn’t need to be a genius to guess why the US-led coalition, which has very powerful surveillance tools, failed to pick up the 4,000 ISIS jihadists making their way to Palmyra, says Peter Ford, the former UK ambassador to Syria.

Thousands of ISIS fighters are trying to recapture the ancient city of Palmyra which was liberated by Russian and Syrian forces in March. Syrian troops have started a major counter-offensive.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Syrian army with Russian air support managed to repel several attacks on Palmyra, killing up to 300 jihadists.

Here’s the key quote:

PF: There has been a trickle over an extended period, and there has also been a flow from Raqqa itself. ISIS was preparing a bolt hole for the eventuality that they will lose Raqqa and they will transfer their capital to Palmyra. It may be in the back of their minds. And the American strategy plays into this. We can forecast a scenario where Mosul is on the verge of falling to the Iraqi US-backed forces, and safe passage is arranged for ISIS fighters. Where would they go? Of course, they will be dumped on Syria – the ideal outcome from the Obama administration point of view.

I certainly hope that isn’t the case. The objective should be defeating DAESH rather than letting it become somebody else’s problem.

The map of at the top of this post is from South Front. I can’t vouch for its veracity.