I encourage you to read Sean Trende’s two part analysis in RealClearPolitics of the possible outcome of redistricting following the census, the recent election, and reapportionment. Short version: Republicans may well get control of the House.
The one aspect of it that he doesn’t take into consideration is the prospect of incumbents facing off against each other in New York, Illinois, and California in 2022. That could have some bearing on things as well.
Not if the pending census is annulled. Whether via executive action, legislation, or lawsuits, every possible maneuver to invalidate the 2020 census will be used (and likely to succeed).
Watch this space; it maybe like the 1920’s where no reapportionment occurred so the 1932 Congress had 20 years of population shifts.
His analysis contains at least one error. The Trifecta in Colorado (Democratic control) matters little because redistricting is done by a commission composed of equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
But it does seem clear the GoP has an advantage across the country consider it has more state-level control than the Democrats.
In PA we will still have most of the votes going for Democrats but most of our congressional seats filled by Republicans. Its just been built in for many years now. The GOP will continue to work on excluding voters to further cement that in.
Steve
Yeah, Andy, that occurred to me as I read it. I’m susprised he wasn’t aware of that.
Yep, as I noted yesterday, that’s the way redistricting works. Here in Illinois they will gerrymander the bejeezus out of the districts to protect Democratic incumbents and force Republicans to run against each other.
We’re practically the gerrymander capitol here. Luis Guitierrez wouldn’t have a seat without an incredibly gerrymandered district. It’s a two-bagger. There’s a guaranteed seat for a Hispanic improving our inclusion cred and the Latino voters are concentrated in a single district rather than being spread out among several and potentially challenging other incumbents as the demographics of their districts change. Without that gerrymandered district there might be one fewer black or one fewer white districts. And there might be more than one district with a Hispanic Congressman.
One observation about redistricting; Republicans (and Democrats) will have a harder time then usual in gerrymandering because they don’t know if 2020 was a trend or an aberration.
i.e. why did Hispanics in Florida, Texas and Asian Americans in California swing towards Republicans — if it is a transient factor (Trump?) or more long lasting. The maps one would draw would be very different if the answer is yes or no.
Or will the affluent suburbs which swung very hard to the Democrats stay that way or do some mean reversion.
Not just gerrymandering. The GOP has had this long campaign of trying to exclude voters they dont like. I wasn’t aware until recently what they did in GA. They kicked a bunch of people off the voter roles if they had not voted in 3 years. Under those rules I would have been booted. I voted on 2016 and 2020 but got stuck late working on an emergency in 2018. Those rules are all aimed at mostly keeping possible Dem voters from voting.
Steve