Advice from a Pollster

In an op-ed in the New York Times pollster Mark Penn and New York politician Andrew Stein offer President Biden some advice:

It’s hard to imagine Democratic candidates further to the left of Mr. McAuliffe, and of Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey, doing any better with swing voters, especially when the math of elections requires two new voters to turn out to equal a single voter who switches from Democrat to Republican. It’s easy to dismiss individual polls that may or may not be accurate — but you can’t dismiss a clear electoral trend: the flight from the Democrats was disproportionately in the suburbs, and the idea that these home-owning, child-rearing, taxpaying voters just want more progressive candidates is not a sustainable one.

After the 1994 congressional elections, Bill Clinton reoriented his administration to the center and saved his presidency. Mr. Biden should follow his lead, listen to centrists, push back on the left and reorient his policies to address the mounting economic issues people are facing. As a senator, he was a master at building coalitions; that is the leadership needed now.

This would mean meeting the voters head on with stronger borders, a slower transition from fossil fuels, a focus on bread-and-butter economic issues (such as the price of gas and groceries), fixes to the supply chain fiasco that is impacting the cost of goods and the pursuit of more moderate social spending bills. Nearly three in four voters see the border as a crisis that needs immediate attention. Moving to the center does not mean budging from core social issues like abortion rights and L.G.B.T.Q. rights that are at the heart of what the party believes in and are largely in sync with suburban voters. But it does mean connecting to voters’ immediate needs and anxieties. As Democrats found in the late ’90s, the success of the administration begets enthusiasm from the base, and we actually gained seats in the 1998 midterms under the theme of “progress not partisanship.”

I’m not sure that’s good advice or at least I’m not sure it’s advice that the president can take. The Democratic Party is a different party than that of 1994. The progressive wing of the party is a lot more influential now than they were then which goes some way to explaining the sharp rise in the number of Americans who consider themselves independents. Bill Clinton couldn’t get nominated today let alone elected.

I do agree with the change in focus they outline: our southern border and inflation are the pressing issues. The challenge for the Biden Administration is to walk and chew gum at the same time—deal with the issues that will get Democrats votes at the ballot box while appeasing the Congressional progressives enough to move legislation.