I wanted to call attention to this report in the Washington Post by John Hudson and Warren P. Strobel. Apparently, just a week before the onset of U.S. hostilities against Iran, the federal government’s National Intelligence Council (NIC) produced a report casting serious doubt on the likelihood that U.S. action could produce regime change:
A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”
The findings, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with the report’s contents, raise doubts about President Donald Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing.
The real issue is not whether Iran can be damaged militarily. Clearly, it can. The issue is whether external military pressure can produce regime collapse. The intelligence community’s answer appears to be “no.”
The WaPo goes on to explain the NIC:
The National Intelligence Council, or NIC, is composed of veteran analysts who produce classified assessments meant to represent the collective wisdom of Washington’s 18 intelligence agencies.
The Administration’s response to questions about the NIC’s report was:
“President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement. “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed.”
and this quote amplifies the question:
“There’s no other force within Iran that can confront the remaining power that the regime has,” said Maloney, of the Brookings Institution. “Even if they’re not able to project that power very effectively against their neighbors, they can certainly dominate inside the country.”
That shouldn’t be surprising in the least. The purpose of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not to project power against their neighbors but to dominate Iran, i.e. to prevent exactly what our present war intends to produce. There is no united opposition to the regime in Iran. Whether the various dissident groups including ethnic dissidents like the Kurds or Balochis either singly or in cooperation with each would be able to oust the regime is an open question. These groups include monarchists, liberal reformers, various regional and ethnic separationalist movements, and student or labor movements. In some instances these groups are as opposed to each other as they are to the regime.
