I both agree and disagree with Megan McArdle’s latest Washington Post column. Here’s her setup:
Last February, Biden told a CNN town hall that “by next Christmas, I think we’ll be in a very different circumstance, God willing, than we are today. … A year from now, I think that there’ll be significantly fewer people having to be socially distanced, having to wear a mask.†Instead, America will be getting a very nasty Christmas present of the omicron variant. More contagious than anything seen so far, it’s clearly able to evade at least some of the immune defenses acquired from vaccines or prior infection.
Then there are the other big nasties under our collective tree: soaring homicides, a brewing conflict over Ukraine and the highest inflation rate the United States has experienced in nearly 40 years. In his stocking, Biden will get an approval rating hovering in the low 40s, lower than that of any modern president at this point in their first term other than Donald Trump.
Here’s her thesis:
The Biden administration has foundered in part because Democrats misjudged how much difference policy could make — underestimating the effects of economic policy, while overestimating the effects of pandemic control.
And here’s her conclusion:
Yet, even as Democrats were overestimating how big a difference policy could make, they were underestimating policy effects elsewhere, notably the inflation that resulted when massive relief spending collided with a kinked-up supply chain. Democrats had been warned of the risks of a too-big relief package, even by some of their own economists. But the left had spent the past few years convincing themselves that old-fashioned concepts such as balanced budgets and controlling inflation were irrelevant to the modern world.
Though the mistakes on the pandemic and on inflation might seem to be of opposite kinds, in fact a common thread links them: a tendency to treat a policy’s intended effects as its actual ones. Throughout the pandemic, blue-state Democrats tended to overweight policy differences between blue and red states, and underweight variables such as seasonal weather patterns; what mattered was that blue states were trying to do something, and red states were not. And that’s also what Democrats paid attention to when it came to economic policy: the goals the administration was trying to achieve, not the inconvenient side effects no one wanted. Unfortunately for Joe Biden, reality had other plans.
I disagree with her thesis. The Biden Administration hasn’t foundered. “Foundered” means failed completely. As the late Mayor Daley might say, let’s look at the record. The U. S. has withdrawn its forces from Afghanistan, something promised by not delivered by his three immediate predecessors. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passed with bipartisan support. Several of his predecessors had tried and failed to get an infrastructure bill enacted. The ARRA was a bit of a mixed bag.
The economy hasn’t collapsed (yet). The healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed by COVID-19 (yet). And we aren’t at war (yet). He’s getting most of his appointments confirmed by the Senate. That’s actually a pretty fair track record for the first year of a presidency. I think the word she may have been looking for is “floundering”. IMO given resurgence of COVID-19, the enormous number of illegal immigrants who have entered the country via our southern border, the tense situation in Ukraine, and the high inflation rate, you can make a case for that. But “foundered”? No.
What I agree with whole-heartedly is her conclusion. As I’ve been saying there have been major miscalculations about policy, rooted in a mistaken view of human nature, what government can and cannot do, and the effects of policy. But, of course, the most important factor is this:
Reality happens to every president, of course, but reality has been happening especially hard to Biden.
I would add that when dealing with a public that has formed its expectations based on television and expects every problem to be solved in the course of an hour, real life presidents will always be disappointments. The days of presidents with persistent approval ratings in the 60s or 70s are gone.
The healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed by COVID-19 (yet) — is a really low bar; lower then I think any reasonable voter would use.
Many voters in 2020 overlooked Biden’s many flaws (age, lack of charm, past scandals, questionable judgement in the past) for one reason — that Biden promised he would do a better job then Trump with respect to COVID-19 (and it seemed reasonable that it was so).
After 1 year, the situation is more people will have died of COVID while Biden was President then Trump one year as President dealing with the pandemic; wide swaths of this country look on the imminent edge of lockdown; and the Federal Government’s response is disorderly.
The COVID situation better be fixed quickly, or else it won’t matter what Biden does in 2022, 2023, 2024; voters will mark the President as failing on his self proclaimed benchmark on the #1 issue.
I don’t know; it may turn out COVID-19 is a much harder problem then Biden thought. But the only rejoinder is Biden’s mistake was in the campaign; and nothing can fix that now.
If he can maintain the illusion of vitality, Biden’s 2024 re-election will be certified and enforced, planning is underway.
Alarmed that 1, in 10 of the January 6th insurgents had served in the military, (1 in 10!), plans are being formed to retrain or replace military leaders and members who cannot be certifiably loyal to the Obama- Biden Presidency.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/retired-generals-urge-pentagon-to-take-steps-to-avert-civil-war-after-2024-election
I should have thought that someone would be interested in the Russian ultimatums to the US and NATO handed down last week.
I plan to post on that today.
“That’s actually a pretty fair track record for the first year of a presidency.”
Foundering vs floundering is just diversionary. CO sums it up neatly as a low bar.
Afghanistan? Yes, we are out. But the horrible execution is there for all to see. A doctor might fix your broken tibia, but if you wake and find it was amputated you won’t be pleased.
Infrastructure Bill? It might be helpful if it was really an infrastructure bill. Helicopter money bills have this strange ability to get passed under any administration. And BBB? Dead. RIP.
The economy hasn’t collapsed? Talk about a low bar. No, but real wages are down and standards of living declining due to inflationary pressures. Pressures that were set in motion by the Fed prior to Biden, but also exacerbated by creating covid panic (Biden’s specialty), failure to address supply chain issues, reversing energy policynot to mention paying people not to work.
Aren’t at war? Hardly unique.
“Reality happens to every president, of course, but reality has been happening especially hard to Biden.”
Overpromising on covid. Energy blundering. Not leading on crime issues. A border fiasco. Scapegoating rather than addressing issues.
As a certain B Obama observed: don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up.
PS – And as of this AM we have the White House basically calling Joe Manchin a liar. Joe apparently is more interested in placating AOC and Ilan Omar.
Nuanced move, there. (snicker)
On Covid, Biden initially exceeded expectations because the election heightened claims that nothing done during Trump’s tenure was done right and it worried me that there would be a stop and reassess vaccine policy. As it was, my wife was fully vaccinated before Biden took office and both my parents and my wife’s had their first dose by then as well. Most states and localities were executing their own policies anyway, and all the feds can do is present clear messaging.
And that is where Biden fails, providing a clear message of future expectations. A few weeks ago, my son came home saying that his teacher was infected, as were several of his friends, with the fully-vaccinated teacher saying the vaccines doesn’t work. I asked if the teacher had any symptoms, “no, just a headache.” What about your friends, well so-and-so was just feeling dizzy and he thinks its because of his wrestling diet and its a false positive. How in the world can this be the vaccine not working? Why isn’t the WH pushing back on the the alarmist FDA/CDC/Media hypochondria complex? Protection against severe disease among those fully vaccinated has remained consistently high throughout the variants, and probably will be for the next and the next as well.
Please provide an example. The closest I can think of is Jimmy Carter and you’d need to ignore the botched Operation Eagle’s Claw. Every president since then has either a) taken us into war or b) kept us in a war inherited from his predecessor. An argument can be made for Ford in that regard as well.
Prior to that every president of the 20th century either kept us in war or took us to war. Keeping us out of war is a rarity for presidents.
I agree with that assessment, PD. His greatest failing has been in raising unreasonable expectations, whether with the American people or within the Democratic Party.
“Please provide an example. The closest I can think of is Jimmy Carter and you’d need to ignore the botched Operation Eagle’s Claw.”
I actually was going to go through a blow by blow, starting with Carter. If you want to get into minor skirmishes to make your point, fine. What next? Grenada or the Occupation of Haiti? The real wars were Iraq I and Iraq II. The second tier were Bosnia, Libya and Somalia and Afghanistan.
I’ll see you Eagles Claw, and raise you the titanic Biden struggle with Corn Pop.
If you feel the need to win some debating point, OK. Biden is failing right and left and could use something on his ledger.
“His greatest failing has been in raising unreasonable expectations, whether with the American people or within the Democratic Party.”
That’s obvious, but reduces the Presidency to optics. His real live policy failures have real live consequences. Its a very ugly picture.
My take is very different. He was elected on the basis of phantom issues in a phantom campaign, facilitated by bald faced media propaganda. The problem with the strategy is that media cannot prevent the realities of pocketbook issues, crime and the lefts own slavery to all things covid from coming to the fore. People experience those first hand. Media can simply not report on the border disaster and it therefore mutes the political impact. Cost of living, ongoing covid and crime are in your face. And telling people inflation is actually good is, well, not the strategy I would choose.
Lebanon comes to mind. 241 American soldiers were killed there.
And then there’s Clinton’s bombing of Belgrade and the ongoing air campaign against Saddam Hussein throughout the Clinton Administration. You’ve already covered Bush I and Bush II.
Obama’s war against Qaddafi; his war in Syria. Drone wars by Bush II, Obama, and Trump. There has been a lot of war over the last several decades.
OK, you run with that.
Meanwhile, back in the practical. As an afterthought another problem for Biden has been his penchant for relying on thinly grounded public spin to deliver BS, in turn reliant on media slavishness. Manchin pretty much delivered a body blow on that:
https://fullstackeconomics.com/joe-manchins-friends-arent-listening-to-him/
Credit should be given where its due.
Trump didn’t start a new “forever” war, and Biden has not so far either.
Lets hope the streak can keep going. The Eastern Europe / Eurasia area looks like a powder-keg (“Russia”,”Belarus”,”Ukraine”,”Turkey”,”Serbia”).
On setting expectations. The problem for Biden is if he had stated during the campaign, “during my first year as President, more people will die of COVID then 2020, we’ll prob lockdown during the holidays of 2021, and people will still be complaining about lack of tests, etc…”; Biden wouldn’t have been elected.
â€My take is very different. He was elected on the basis of phantom issues in a phantom campaign, facilitated by bald faced media propaganda. The problem with the strategy is that media cannot prevent the realities of pocketbook issues, crime and the lefts own slavery to all things covid from coming to the fore. People experience those first hand. Media can simply not report on the border disaster and it therefore mutes the political impact. Cost of living, ongoing covid and crime are in your face. And telling people inflation is actually good is, well, not the strategy I would choose.
Well said, Drew!
Everything emanating from Biden’s run for office was a product of media filtering, molding the news into a pre approved social progressive formate. Like today’s booster shots, they continually injected the public with information lacking real investigative reporting or non-biased facts. Consequently, this faux campaign produced a disastrous agenda driven by ideology rather than competency and reason. From the illegal border breaches, increased human and drug trafficking, the horrendously orchestrated Afghanistan departure, the medical malpractice COVID response this administration has prolonged leading to small business, educational, and mental/physical health declines, reversals in energy supplies, the list just goes on and on. The viscerally obnoxious part of all this is a feeble Biden lying about our “state of the union,†saying how great everything is when people’s eyes and pocketbooks see how dismal everything really is!
Yes, that’s the point.
Curious,
Biden hasn’t started a war “yet,†but appears to be eying Ukraine as a possible side show to distract people from his miserable policies and leadership miscalculations.
As for COVID, Biden has weaponized this virus to act as a threat to mankind, enabling him to rule via fear rather than sensible collaborations with the scientific community at large. Prominent physicians/scientists from around the world have given medical opinions saying lock downs, mandates, universal vaccinations don’t work, and are actually harmful. In fact, the very axioms of public health practices have been violated under the Biden regime, in ignoring the collateral damage caused by the deterioration of our mental, emotional, economical health, sidelining all medical concerns other than COVID, in obsessing 24/7 on this virus. There are many who say if better medical protocols had been initiated – the administration of anti virals and focusing on the vulnerable rather than incarcerating the healthy – we would have subdued this virus some time ago. Instead, we are carrying on with the same fears, calling for more boosters, hinting at lockdowns and vaccination passports – it’s insanity on a rampage.
” sidelining all medical concerns other than COVID”
Just so you know we are taking care of medical issues there than covid.
“There are many who say if better medical protocols had been initiated – the administration of anti virals and focusing on the vulnerable rather than incarcerating the healthy – we would have subdued this virus some time ago.”
No one who practices evidence based medicine. No one has produced a model showing how to successfully protect the vulnerable outside of some heroic efforts at nursing homes.
“Trump didn’t start a new “forever†war, and Biden has not so far either.”
Biden did end one, the long one.
What’s this crime thing? We haven’t had any in my town.
Steve
The use of inexpensive antivirals, along with zinc, D3, vit C, has been physician-recommended and practiced with great but unreported success, throughout the world, by the legacy media and intimidated medical establishment. I don’t understand why people are being forced to take vaccines they feel are unsafe, nor why governments are using punitive tactics towards those who refuse.
Anecdotally, there may be some hospitals engaged in medical and preventive care, other than COVID focused care. However, there is more data showing how neglect in cancer screenings and elective surgeries, during the COVID hysterics, have taken their toll on the overall health of the public. Throw in the 100,000 drug ODs last year, increases in suicides, decline of mental health, the educational maladies arising from school closures, and small business failures and I think far too much has been lost than gained from the enforcement of COVID protocols that are still wrecking havoc on and taking freedoms away from the people in this country.
As for Biden ending the war – he did so with an insufferable lack of consideration in getting our people out safely, or leaving it in better hands, like the Afghan military, rather than the Taliban.