I wanted to call this interview of foreign affairs guru Edward Luttwak at The American Spectator by Francis Sempa to your attention. Here’s a notable portion of the commentary:
Luttwak believes that despite all the talk in Washington and in other Western capitals about “unwavering support†for Ukraine, Western leaders, including President Joe Biden, seek a negotiated settlement with Russia. The much-anticipated Ukrainian offensive has stalled. Russia’s government survived a scare by the Wagner Group, and its troops are fighting better now than in the first year of the war. Historically, “when Russia goes to war they always mess up†at first, Luttwak says, but “as the war goes on Russians fight better,†and that is what is happening now. Top U.S. officials, like CIA Director William J. Burns, recognize this fact and have advised Biden accordingly, which is why Biden poured cold water on the Ukraine-in-NATO suggestion. Putin, Luttwak noted, has also publicly pulled back from the “nuclear threat†in a signal to Ukraine and the U.S. that a negotiated solution is possible. Luttwak also contends that Ukraine’s leaders also know that a negotiated peace is the most realistic scenario for ending the war.
U.S. leaders, according to Luttwak, want a Russia–Ukraine settlement precisely because of the more significant geopolitical threat of China in the western Pacific. This is in line with what former Pentagon official Elbridge Colby has suggested. That threat, Luttwak says, is centered around the person of Xi Jinping, who Luttwak believes is “obsessed†with China’s “rejuvenation†and who thinks China’s “rejuvenation†demands reunification with Taiwan — if necessary, by force. Xi is preparing China for war.
Mr. Luttwak is much more hawkish than I and, although I think that China poses a threat to the United States, it is primarily a threat of our own making. To mitigate the threat we would need a complete sea change in our domestic and foreign policies, the latter of which Mr. Luttwak has been key in forming. I simply don’t see those changes happening.
What will happen? As noted in the commentary, we have a dangerous future ahead.
Someone, I believe the Chinese, has compiled a list of all the wars and military interventions since 1945. There are 250 plus, and the US started 80%, almost always against countries that were at peace with us and our allies. E.g., Panama, Dominican Republic, Iraq II, Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya…
(Libya is one of the worst war crimes since WW II. It ranks right up there with the Rwanda and Cambodia genocides.)
Luttwak, Brzezinski, and their modern neocon disciples are inveterate war mongers and imperialists of the 19th Century ilk. They are committed to the destruction of both Russia and China, and they have implemented extremely hostile policies against both countries. The Russo-China alliance, the war in Ukraine, and the coming war for Taiwan are their doing.
The neocons have brought us closer to nuclear war than at any time since 1945, and that includes the Cuban Missile Crisis, which occurred when I was in college, and which I remember clearly. Both Kennedy and Khrushchev were sane, responsible leaders, and they sought and got a peaceful way out of the crisis. I think Putin and Xi are also sane and basically peaceful, but our government is infested with aggressive, violent psychopaths and sociopaths. They also form one of the most corrupt governments on Earth.
Since January, 2023, the Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has been set at 90 seconds before midnight. It should be adjusted to 1 second.
I am skeptical of the Chinese government; but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Beijing views its actions are mostly defensive in nature and it is the US that is dangerously aggressive.
I point out the Chinese have listed Taiwan as the “core of core interests” (i.e. their red line); yet this President (and Congressional members) keeps improvising and contradicting the existing US “One China” policy as stated for 40 years and formulated in the Taiwan Relations act. And yes I know the US “One China” policy is not the Beijing “One China” policy — but its subtle formulation is what made relations possible.
Or take semiconductors. While it made a lot of sense to deny China “EUV” technology, it appeared aggressive to sanction the use of advanced “DUV” that China had access to, and very aggressive to sanction the use of “DUV” that is more then 10 years old, an eon in semiconductor time. Its one thing to block access to key future technologies, but those actions show intent on sending China backwards in its development, given the criticality of semiconductors to a modern economy.
By the way, I interpret things differently from Luttwak.
Neither the US nor Russia are seeking a negotiated solution, if anything, they are planning escalation. From the US side, there was this article (note the Moscow Times is not a Russian publication) that expounded the status of backchannel talks as the Kremlin is not talking, there isn’t a sensible proposal to talk about and the US is looking for the Russian elite to oust Putin. On the Russian side, I saw on twitter credible indications that Russia is planning a 2nd mobilization, much more expensive than the one last year (and fitting with Russia’s rapidly increasing arms production).
“But now they’re at war — suffering a humiliating defeat is not an option for these guys.â€
Surprise Surprise!
Sanctions, asset forfeiture, threats of regime change, who would have thought those overtures would be unwelcome?
Putin has proven himself to be realistic, willing to pay, (Russians and Ukrainians to pay) the bloody costs of a long slog victory.
Once again, we expect the enemy to fold his hand in the face of our power and we find ourselves looking for a way out when he doesn’t.