Yesterday a court found that vaccines are not to blame for autism:
In a big blow to parents who believe vaccines caused their children’s autism, a special court ruled Thursday that the shots are not to blame. The court said the evidence was overwhelmingly contrary to the parents’ claims — and backed years of science that found no risk.
“It was abundantly clear that petitioners’ theories of causation were speculative and unpersuasive,” the court concluded in one of a trio of cases ruled on Thursday.
The ruling was anxiously awaited by health authorities and families who began presenting evidence in June 2007. More than 5,500 claims have been filed by families seeking compensation through the government’s Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. The claims are reviewed by special masters serving on the U.S. Court of Claims.
“Hopefully, the determination by the special masters will help reassure parents that vaccines do not cause autism,” the Department of Health and Human Services said in a statement.
Don’t count on it. As I predicted last week when it was revealed that the original study finding a link between vaccines and autism had falsified data, those pressing this case won’t be deterred:
Autism advocacy groups that support the idea of a link between vaccines and the development of autism said a ruling handed down Thursday by a special court was devastating — but that it will not sway them from their cause.
“I’m devastated today,” said Rebecca Estepp, national media manager for the organization Talk About Curing Autism. “But I also know that the decision will be appealed.
“As parents, we feel like, OK, we’re going to fight even harder to get justice for our children,” she added. “In a way this might have reignited our cause… Just because we lost today does not mean we will lose in the future.”
As I understand it, this “special court” was employing a non-traditional, low threshold concept of causation. It was not causation as it would be used either in science or in traditional court proceedings. The best analogy I can think of is this is like a learner’s league in baseball. The strike zone will be generous to the hitter because we want young people to learn and enjoy the game. Similarly, this program was generous because of the obvious sympathies involved and because the program’s presence is intended to promote vacination.
Shaw has it right – this court had an even lower threshold for proving harm than ordinary courts, and the anti-vaccine people STILL completely lost. I don’t expect them to stop (the anti-vaccination cause has become a conspiracy-theory style cult movement), but maybe it will stop any more growth in their movement.