Along with other OTB associates I’ve posted the scorecard for my 2008 predictions over there.
By my reckoning I got 11 right, 1 wrong, and I gave myself half credit for 4 which gives me an 81.25% rate of accuracy. Some of the commenters over at OTB have suggested that I deserve at least half credit for predicting serious financial difficulties for at least one of the states, pointing to California. However, when I said “serious”, I meant serious and California is just at an impasse at this point, it hasn’t defaulted or declared bankruptcy.
Additionally, I failed to predict the two biggest stories of the year: Barack Obama’s election to the presidency and just how bad the financial crisis would be. I knew it would be bad but I really had no idea of how low it would go. We may not realize the full extent for a while yet.
I’ll post my predictions for 2009 on New Year’s Eve.
I thought I’d put a few annotations to my last year’s predictions here. I gave myself half credit for my prediction on Pakistan because I was right that there was no soft landing for the country. If relations with India continue to deteriorate we may see just how hard Pakistan will land next year.
Although Pervez Mussharaf has “made it to the end of the year”, he’s no longer the leader of Pakistan. I gave myself half credit for that one.
As I noted above I deducted a half point for not realizing just how serious the sub-prime mortage crisis, now being referred to as the financial crisis (or economic crisis, which is an exaggeration) would be.
My prediction on video game sales was largely correct but I’ve been surprised that there hasn’t been a movie tie-in for the mega-seller Mass Effect.
One final note on one of my correct predictions. Not only did the writers’ strike result in a 10% loss in viewership for the networks and kill off one of the 2007 season’s most promising new shows (Pushing Daisies), it resulted in fewer scripted hours in prime time on network TV for the 2009-2010 season. That’s a debacle by any standards and IMO the actors would be fools to go on strike right now. It would put the final nail in the coffin of network television drama.
