Coming Anarchy notes that, if the operative definition of “globalization” is that American consumers buy stuff made all over the world, flagging U. S. consumption could have very serious implications for the economies of many of the world’s countries:
What’s more, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics recently reported that the Chinese economy’s dependency rate on foreign economies exceeded 60 percent. For the first time, Beijing officially admitted for the first time that China’s more than 10 percent annual economic expansion is heavily dependent on the West. How the US goes, so goes the world. A lot of countries are going to start to discover that very shortly.
Around here I’ve tended to state that in an inverted form: if the Chinese economy is to continue its remarkable growth, the Chinese will need to cultivate their domestic market. That in turn will have serious social implications which the Chinese leadership have sought to avoid.
You’re singing my song.
I’ve long noted that China uses export revenues to subsidize the hell out of their domestic consumer markets. If export revenues substantially decline, they’ll have to boost domestic consumer prices considerably or suffer major shortages in consumer goods. Inflation or shortages. Either way, no fun for them.