Hypothetical Question

There’s a report that Iranian-made missiles are being found in Basra:

The Iraqi minister of defense pushed the debate with the Iranians over their provision of weapons to Shia militias one more step on Monday. Minister Abdul Qadir Obeidi indirectly confronted the Iranians, without naming them, with new findings that prove their involvement in the arming of Shia militias.

On Monday, state-owned al-Sabah published a statement by the minister in which he spoke of the capture of a certain type of rocket that was never found in militia-held caches until now:

Defense minister Abdul Qadir Mohammed Obeidi revealed that army troops found a 200-mm ground-to-ground rocket manufactured in 2007 during a search operation by the troops north of Basra. Obeidi told al-Sabah in an exclusive interview that, under international laws and norms, this kind of rocket can be traded only with the approval of parliaments and is used only at times of extreme necessity during wars … and wondered how this rocket entered the country. Obeidi added that this rocket can be launched only from a special platform and by specialized crews.

From what I read in Iraq’s two biggest newspapers, it seems that the government is trying to step up the rhetoric against Iranian interference in Iraq and to induce uproar among the Iraqi public. Azzaman had the following information about the found rocket, provided by “intelligence officials“:

The rocket was manufactured in 2007 in Iran and is called Falaq-1. Falaq-1 is a strategic missile of immense destruction power and was used by Hezbollah against Israel in the July 2006 war. … The sources mentioned that launching this type of rocket requires a crew of several people with advanced technological expertise. … The sources, who preferred to remain unnamed, said that if this rocket was launched at a target, it could obliterate an entire city and kill all of its inhabitants even if those numbered by the tens of thousands. … The same sources added that increasing the range of the rocket is not a complex process and can be done inside Iraq and clarified that the discovery of this strategic rocket in Basra poses a threat to security in Iraq and the Middle East. The sources expressed fear that large numbers of this rocket might have entered Iraq with crews to launch them. If that happens then we’d be on the brink of a domestic and regional security crisis.

If I’m not mistaken the missile being referred to is something very similar to the old Russian BM-24 “Katyusha” rockets, a tactical weapon rather than a strategic one, and both the sophistication of the weapon and its destructive capability are somewhat exaggerated in the translated quotes from al-Sabah, above. Still, these weapons are not the sort of thing that Iraqi militias are cooking up in their basements or making out of old cellphones, nails, and a little explosive. They’re good-sized manufactured weapons.

Here’s my question. Let’s assume that the reports are true. What’s the proper course of action? I’m sure that the usual suspects will immediately want to attack Iran and others of the usual suspects will think that the entire thing is being trumped up by the Bush Administration.

I’m on record as opposing the use of military force by the U. S. against Iran on the grounds that it would be both ineffective and counterproductive. Consistent with that I think the right course of action is for Iraq to take its evidence to the United Nations Security Council and ask for sanctions against Iran.

What do you think?

6 comments… add one
  • It’s a tough problem and Iran is very good at this sort of thing. There are not easy solutions, but here is one option:

    Return the favor. Tell the Iranians directly that for every Iranian weapon we find in Iraq, we’ll give two to Iranian insurgents and separatist groups, of which there are a few. If Iran doesn’t respond, keep the promise.

  • It’s nothing new is the thing. Well, this particular type of rocket is, but Iran has been shipping arms (including sophisticated arms) into Iraq for years. Even more to the point, Iranian troops (Qods force mostly, so far as I have seen reports) are in Iraq as trainers and planners and, in at least one instance, taking direct action and kidnapping US soldiers. So there’s nothing to be done based solely on this information, but if the US eventually does take action, this would be part of the justification.

  • PD Shaw Link

    Andy stole me idea (Return the favor etc.)

  • Mike Link

    Perhaps instead of sending weapons to Iranian insurgents we should be sending ipods,cell phones, laptops,etc to the younger generation. Let’s try to battle on the cultural front.

  • Let’s export sex, drugs and rock and roll! (I am referring to booze when I speak of drugs.)

    Actually, these are some of the reasons why many people in the Muslim world believe us to be decadent, superficial and weak. Iran included. Many find our dance clubs as well as other cultural norms to be morally repulsive. With the global economy, it is virtually impossible to avoid cultural interaction. With interaction comes change. Throughout history, people have resisted this type of change with open warfare.

  • Joe,

    Google yourself up some heroin/opium and Iran. Iran has a serious drug-abuse problem the government would like to hide.

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